Quiet Week in Toronto’s Mayoral Race, Bradford Striking a Softer Tone

With Toronto in the midst of World Cup programming and the impacts that come along with it, the top Mayoral candidates enjoyed a relatively quiet week. City Council is preparing for its last two Council meetings of the term, with the dominating topic being the future of Billy Bishop Airport (which was removed from partial municipal responsibility). However, anyone looking for this becoming a wedge issue will need to wait as Bradford voted to support Chow’s motion on a number of measures taken by the City to try and protect the surrounding lands at its meeting in May.

Instead, both mayoral candidates could be viewed as World Cup coaches nervously watching their teams begin to execute strategies to win.

For the challenger, Bradford unveiled his first ad campaign showcasing his family and striking a much gentler tone than his previous videos criticizing the delivery of City services, specifically of Mayor Chow’s leadership. These two videos illustrate the challenge of running against an incumbent; balancing a positive message with a critique of the current Mayor.

For Chow, while she has formally registered to run, she is receiving both the benefits and pitfalls of sitting in the mayor’s seat to kick-off the campaign. Chow gets the opportunity to improve her profile celebrating positive international coverage of the city and fan parties, but she also must defend city decisions made under her watch around congestion, recouping hosting costs, and security concerns.

Councillor registrations remain incredibly low, some wards with zero candidates

There are still 17 incumbents who have not registered to run for re-election; the reason for low registration is elusive and continues a trend of low registration numbers that began in 2022. Generally, candidates who stand any chance of beating an incumbent have been knocking on doors and raising money to support the steep hill they need to climb. This means registering early to allow for the ability to fundraise and produce materials. The shorter the runway to election day, the less likely any challenger will be able to take flight.

Meanwhile, Don Valley West (Chernos Lin) and Scarborough-Guildwood (Ainslie) remain without any registered candidates. Neither of these Councillors are expected to be seriously challenged, but having fewer candidates does present an opportunity for someone to step forward as a change candidate and have support coalesce around them, especially if any have not been active in their communities, or their alignment with a particular Mayoral candidate or party brand is not well-received by the electorate.

The other option is simply that people do not want the job. Since the reduction of Council size, a Councillor is responsible for wards approximately the size of a mid-sized Ontario municipality. The ability to perform the style of municipal politics that made Rob Ford a successful politician is significantly reduced given the number of constituents and meetings that the elected official is required to attend. And unlike other orders of government, there is nary a legislative break in the calendar.

Power of incumbency will be tested in Scarborough North

It’s accepted that incumbency is the major deciding factor in Toronto’s municipal elections, but one wonders if Scarborough North presents a unique situation given its history. In 2022, incumbent Cynthia Lai was expected to cruise to victory until she died suddenly just 3 days before the election. As a result, Jamaal Myers won the seat (which already had very few registered candidates) with the lowest vote count of any winner on election night. Could this mean some vulnerability in the next go around?

Myers has picked up high profile positions (TTC Chair, Executive Committee) since entering Council, established himself as a firm ally of Mayor Chow, and is endorsed by Progress Toronto. This builds upon his previous community advocacy work with TABIU Community Health Centre and the Scarborough Business Association. We had wondered if he may have done enough to keep away serious challengers, but with the recent registration of former Liberal MP Han Dong for Scarborough North as a higher profile candidate, the power of incumbency will surely be tested.

Does Toronto have a mighty- or mushy-middle?

Councillors occupying the centre of the political spectrum are sometimes labeled the ‘mighty-’ or ‘mushy-middle’. It represents either their role as the key decision makers on Council (mighty), or their willingness to vote alongside power (mushy) on most key issues. The ‘mighty’ push against Mayoral power and decision making, while the ‘mushy’ tend to align with the administration. The ‘middle’ was a much larger contingent during the Ford and Tory era and has shrunk considerably since Chow’s election in 2023.

Chow’s Council can be characterized as one lacking the fireworks and excitement of previous versions of Council. She rarely loses a major vote and the majority of Councillors vote with her over 80% of the time. During Tory’s tenure, it seemed more votes were won or lost based on the decisions of the Councillors whose voting percentages fell closer to the mid-range.

Should Bradford prevail in October, one could expect to see a few Councillors who are Chow’s stalwarts (voting with her over 80% of the time) begin to vote more frequently with a right-leaning administration. For example, those with a track record of supporting Tory (like Nunziata, Colle, Mantas, Thompson, Ainslie, Perruzza) would seem to be easy Bradford supporters. Newer Councillors (like Saxe, Chernos Lin, Cheng, and Kandavel) may be more likely to vote with the prevailing administration. And then there are targets like Carroll, Morley, and Myers who have regularly caucused with the progressive faction at City Hall, but either have a track record of voting with the mayor regardless of stripe (Carroll) or less defined political history (Morley, Myers). For these three, their wards also tend to vote more centrist on average.

What are we watching in the weeks ahead?

With the World Cup taking over the headlines, there is unlikely to be significant movement or campaign activity from Mayor or Councillor candidates. It will be interesting to witness how Chow (originally a World Cup sceptic) will continue to celebrate the spectacle and whether those good feelings will persist after the event ends.

The Bradford camp will likely be hoping to pick apart the City’s failures to meet pre-tournament milestones and disruptions being created by hosting the World Cup, though most media coverage seems fixated on the positive fan experiences.

Read our Toronto election updates one and two for the full story.