Chow Enters Race, Says “There’s More To Do,” Ford Is… Supportive?
Ending months of speculation, and doing the obvious thing, Mayor Chow registered to run for re-election this past week. She may (or may not) have chosen to register at this stage in response to the Bradford campaign suggesting the Mayor was running a shadow campaign on the taxpayer’s dime, cutting off that line of debate. This is potentially supported by Chow downplaying the registration and saying there is more to do, and that there is plenty of time to campaign in the fall. The team likely saw no benefit in staying out and potentially inviting more candidates to the race. It is increasingly clear that the Bradford-Chow matchup will dominate the headlines.
Striking a significantly different tone from the 2023 by-election, Premier Ford (while vowing not to endorse any candidate) said he really likes Mayor Chow. By having a mayor of a different political stripe at City Hall, it does provide the Premier with some cover to take a harder line against causes he feels strongly about (speed cameras, bike lanes).
However, the friendly and respectful relationship between the two has been evident for some time. Chow is now a regular at Ford Fest, and her Council renamed an Etobicoke stadium after his late brother, Rob. Previously, the Rob Ford led Council renamed the ferry terminal after Chow’s late husband Jack Layton. Ford and Chow are also regulars at each other’s Toronto focused announcements, even when they are singing different tunes. Could this translate to a softer landing for Chow with Ford Nation voters?
Still Slow on Incumbent Registration, But Some Races Look Spicy
Aside from the Mayor, this week only saw Councillor Pasternak take the leap and register, meaning there are still 18 incumbents waiting to enter the race. Let’s look at some of these seats which have the potential to be hotly contested:
Kandavel Under Investigation Creates Opportunity
The Council cycle was overshadowed last week by the fact that Councillor Parthi Kandavel (Scarborough Southwest) is under OPP investigation related to a complaint to the Integrity Commissioner from a developer in his ward. Being under investigation is not something that prevents someone from registering to run or hold office, but it may cast a long shadow into the upcoming election.
Voters are also typically sensitive to the influence of developers, and the allegations could prove problematic for Kandavel, even if the investigation does not progress as it creates an easy attack for his competition. A noteworthy alternative or star candidate has not come forward to run for this seat, but we will be looking to see if anyone attempts to coalesce support to take the seat.
Nunziata vs Padovani Round 3?
This will be Padovani’s third time running against Nunziata, finishing 3000 votes back in 2018, and just 93 behind in 2022. With the gap closed, will Padovani finally break through?
Progress Toronto has allocated a significant amount of its resources over the years into this ward, and York South-Weston is seeing a demographic shift with its connectivity to the downtown core via UP Express. Houses in the area typically more affordable than other areas of the City, leading to new families moving in. Nunziata has been a surprising ally of Mayor Chow, likely in a bid to show her socially progressive side and make a dent in Padovani’s rising support. This is sure to be another close race, unless Nunziata decides that 38 years in office has been enough.
Shan Is Hoping History Will Not Repeat
In February 2017, Neethan Shan was elected Councillor in Scarborough-Rouge Park in a by-election. He would lose the 2018 municipal election to Jennifer McKelvie. In 2025, Shan was elected Councillor of Scarborough-Rouge Park in a by-election. In 2018, he was vulnerable to a popular Mayor endorsing his competitor and a weak progressive challenger.
We suspect that with Chow as the frontrunner, and having the ward vote heavily for Chow in her by-election, Shan will be able to win this seat again. Shawn Allen, President of the Scarborough Business Association, and third place finisher in the by-election has registered to run again, he was previously endorsed by A Better City (ABC) Toronto in the 2025 by-election.
What Are We Watching in the Weeks Ahead?
While the Bradford campaign has hinted at their key policy focus centring around cost of living, congestion, and crime, and the Chow campaign touting the familiar refrain of affordable, safe, and caring, neither have put forward any new and specific policy commitments.
Campaigns will typically schedule major policy announcements on a regular cadence to keep their candidate’s name in the news, to take the spotlight away from their competition, or to distract from potentially problematic news. For now, we don’t foresee a tumultuous City report coming forward that will paint either candidate negatively, and expect the candidates’ respective platforms to be released slowly over the coming weeks.
It will be interesting to see which campaign levers each candidate uses first to demonstrate momentum. Showcasing fundraising might, organizational capacity, or policy heft are options at the candidates’ disposal.
Chow will likely continue to focus on governing from the Mayor’s Chair, and this will buy Bradford more time to start putting details to his policy plans.