Western Canadian “Peace in Our Time”?

Unpacking a weekend of federal-provincial dealmaking.

In Ottawa, the days and weeks after Canada Day are normally when announcements disappear off the radar.

The same can’t be said for July 2026. Over the last few days, there has been a pace and flurry of announcements that set the tone for future cooperative federalism. The key question is: can federal and provincial leaders actually deliver?

Over the last few days, however, the impasse on energy policy between Canada-BC-Alberta may have begun to be broken. Prime Minister Mark Carney first travelled to Vancouver and then to Calgary to make two major announcements: the first with BC’s Premier David Eby and the second with Alberta’s Premier Danielle Smith.

Let’s analyze both and what it all actually means.

1) Canada-BC

This was a much needed win for Premier David Eby. Eby secured a key commitment for his environmental base and Indigenous partners (North Coast Tanker Ban), along with significant federal investments which his critics will find hard to ignore.

For Eby, the cost was nominal, he needed to acknowledge that the TMX pipeline would be twinned. The debate over this pipeline route was already settled; the BC government had previously tested its powers to slow or stop the TMX transboundary pipeline. This fight went all the way to the Supreme Court, and the BC government lost.

In exchange for acknowledging this reality, Eby received substantial federal investment in other key areas:

• $3 billion for the Massey Tunnel in Vancouver
• $500 million to expand the Red Chris Mine
• $3.9 billion for the North Coast Transmission Line
• $10 billion for the Roberts Bank container terminal, along with significant reductions in permitting timing
• First Nations ownership opportunities
• A continuation of the North Coast Tanker Ban
• Childcare funding

The preservation of the north coast tanker ban is extremely important to Eby’s political survival. While Eby’s base may not be overjoyed with another southern pipeline, he was able to demonstrate a major win on a key policy plank, coupled with commitments of billions of dollars for BC.

2) Alberta West Coast Pipeline

Since becoming Premier Danielle Smith has been clear on seeking as many routes for Alberta oil and gas as possible. Key among this is increased oil sales to Asia, where the price per barrel of oil is much higher than the discounted price to the United States.

Of course, producers aren’t interested in increased production if there’s no way to ship it to market. Only an additional pipeline through BC could deliver the kind of quantity that Smith was seeking.

Overlay ten years of largely federal opposition and regulatory policies that not only restricted production but made it almost impossible. This federal positioning helped increase anti-Ottawa sentiment in the province, much of which is manifesting itself in this fall’s “referendum on a referendum” on Alberta separation.

Friday’s announcement made a second pipeline much more viable. With BC’s financial wins and promise not to oppose a southern route pipeline, Danielle Smith was much more willing to announce that the Province of Alberta would be the proponent of a second pipeline, with federal support and a ten percent stake by a private-sector investor.

This is ultimately good news for Smith. It makes it clear that there’s support for a strong Alberta within a united Canada. While it’s still just a step, it allows her to claim that under her leadership she has been able to deliver for the province on major economic questions. It also gave her a platform heading into the Calgary Stampede where she was then able to announce a potential eastern pipeline to Sarnia with Ontario’s Premier, Doug Ford.

3) What’s in it for Carney?

Since before becoming Prime Minister, Carney had announced his support for the Pathway’s Project of lower carbon oil through sequestration. However, he needed to navigate challenges that many thought were unsurmountable:

• BC’s opposition to a second pipeline, especially along a northern route
• Alberta’s demands for a second pipeline and the blanket elimination of several Trudeau-era policies such as the tanker ban
• The rise of an Alberta separatist movement and this fall’s referendum

All of this is happening against a backdrop of internal Liberal Party caucus management that is skeptical of further conventional resource development.

What’s clear is that these announcements have cost the Prime Minister not just money but also serious political capital. There are many hurdles ahead for BC, Alberta, and Canada to make these commitments a reality.

This is not the end of the challenges ahead, but building trust between an NDP premier, a UCP premier, and a Liberal prime minister has to start somewhere, and this is a good beginning.