Queen’s Park Returns Ahead of High-Stakes Budget

The Ontario legislature returns this spring against a backdrop similar to the fall session: a slowing economy, ongoing tariff threats, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

In the lead-up to Queen’s Park returning, the Premier dominated the news cycle with announcements on a wide array of retail political issues from pepper spray to tailgating.

By tabling the budget at the start of the sitting, the Ford government is setting the tone of how they plan to “Protect Ontario” at a time when the province faces significant economic headwinds.

1) Ford Government to Lay Out Priorities in New Budget

Why it matters: Several governments across Canada have released more fiscally restrained budgets in the last year. The 2025 Ontario FES anticipated a deficit of $13.5 billion for 2025-2026.

Ontario had the second highest unemployment rate (7.6%) among Canadian provinces in February. Premier Ford has repeatedly stated that he would spare no expense to protect Ontario workers. The budget will tell us how the government plans to balance this commitment with a certain degree of fiscal restraint.

The details:  

• Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy signaled the budget will be structured around six core themes:
  • Productivity and innovation
  • A competitive business environment
  • Infrastructure and housing
  • Trade and competitiveness
  • Talent and workforce
  • Energy
• Healthcare and education, including postsecondary, are expected to be key areas of focus as the budget will likely highlight commitments made during the winter; these two sectors represent together nearly two thirds of the province’s annual expenses

The bottom line: The six themes identified by Minister Bethlenfalvy have been the bread and butter of the PC government. The PCs are doubling down on policy themes that have previously delivered under the “For the People,” “Open for Business,” “Get it Done,” “Building a Strong Ontario,” and now “Protect Ontario” banners.

2) Doug Ford: Captain Canada 2.0

Why it matters: 2026 began with Premier Ford handing the chairmanship of the Council of the Federation to the Premier of Prince Edward Island, Rob Lantz. However, Ford isn’t giving up his role as Captain Canada, which has served him well politically.

The Premier appeared on U.S. media to make the case for Ontario and Canada. At home, Ford continued to challenge interprovincial trade barriers and promote cooperation, sometimes compromise, with his fellow Premiers.

The details:

• Electric Vehicles – Ford challenged Quebec Premier François Legault and British Columbia Premier David Eby on electric vehicle sales targets, and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe over the compromise on canola products
• Alberta Separatism – Ford called on Alberta Premier Danielle Smith to take a stronger stance against separatist sentiments
• Crown Royal – After a long, public debate with Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew and Diageo, Crown Royal is finally back on the shelves of LCBO
• Port Saint John – Alongside New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt, Ford delivered an endorsement of the port so more Ontario goods can be shipped around the world
• Direct to consumer alcohol sales – Ford and Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston inked a deal to allow alcohol producers to ship across provincial borders

The bottom line: While no longer chairing the premier’s table, Ford is here to stay on the national stage.

3) Opposition Parties Looking to Cut Through the Noise

Why it matters: Despite Premier Ford’s fluctuating approval ratings, Ontario’s NDP and Liberals continue to struggle to make inroads with Ontario voters. In their own ways, both parties are focused on defining their unique leadership offering to the electorate.

The details:

• As Official Opposition, the NDP will continue to focus on affordability, healthcare, education, and jobs, while arguing the Ford government isn’t following through on promises to Ontario workers, students, and families
• Marit Stiles enters the sitting with new leadership pressure following NDP’s former deputy leader, Doly Begum’s, unexpected jump to the federal Liberals
• The Ontario Liberals are months away from choosing a new leader, leaving the party in a drawn-out leadership race until November; the race has remained quiet for now, but things can heat up quickly with the candidates list still firming up

The bottom line: The Ontario NDP and Liberals are each focused on presenting united alternatives to Doug Ford and the PC government.