Back to Queen’s Park: Economic Turbulence Meets Political Flux

Ontario’s fall legislative session opens amid a slowing economy, a tariff war with the U.S., and leadership turmoil in both opposition parties, setting up a test of Premier Doug Ford’s dominance and Ontario’s fiscal direction. 

Ontario enters the session facing its most unpredictable economic moment in years. Trade tensions are hammering key sectors, unemployment has climbed, and a cautious public is watching how Ford balances populist nationalism with fiscal stewardship.  

While the opposition parties will attempt to draw the public’s attention to hot button political issues such as the Auditor General’s report on the Skills Development Fund, Premier Ford and his government will look to keep the Ontarians focus on issues which have driven his recent political success: the cost of living, support for workers and businesses hit hard by tariffs, and major infrastructure projects.  

Here are four things to watch for this fall as Queen’s Park returns:

1) Ford’s Captain Canada Playbook

The Premier is doubling down on his nationalist image: pouring Crown Royal to protest job cuts, buying ads in U.S. markets, and urging Prime Minister Mark Carney to hit back against Donald Trump’s tariffs. 

Why it matters: Ford’s combative, patriotic stance resonates far beyond his base. Polls show PC support around 50%, with even non-PC voters approving of his posture toward Washington. The “Captain Canada” brand lets Ford shift attention away from domestic controversies and toward defending Ontario’s workers. 

The details: 

• Ford’s stance on the trade war has become his political armour. Vocally opposing Trump is an issue he controls, and his opponents cannot easily weaponize
• His tone contrasts sharply with Carney’s quiet diplomacy, hinting at federal–provincial friction as trade and security talks resume
• Expect Ford to frame every economic challenge through the “Protect Ontario” lens, even if Carney and other Premiers prefer a different tone

The bottom line: Ford’s Protect Ontario mantra plays well politically. While some will suggest it risks complicating Canada’s broader trade strategy at a precarious moment for exporters, Ford appears quite certain of his stance and is unlikely to change course.

2) Fall Economic Statement: Fiscal Cuts or Deeper Deficits

Ontario’s Fall Economic Statement (FES) will reveal whether Ford plans to spend his way through the trade storm or tighten belts amid uncertainty. 

Why it matters: Tariffs and global instability make projecting Ontario’s finances treacherous. Ford made the last election campaign and his entire third term so far about “Protecting Ontario”, but deficits are widening, and the cost of major infrastructure projects keeps climbing. The FES will show whether Ford bets on stimulus or restraint. 

By the numbers: 

• Ontario’s deficit is expected to grow from pre-election forecasts
• Infrastructure spending remains at record levels, with over $28 billion in transit builds underway
• Interest payments are creeping toward $15 billion annually, crowding out new program spending

The bottom line: Don’t expect deep cuts. Ford has clearly signaled his comfort in running deficits to shield workers and businesses. The risk is how long voters tolerate a government that spends like it is still campaigning.

3) Liberals in Limbo

The Ontario Liberals are heading into their third leadership race in six years after Bonnie Crombie’s September resignation. 

Why it matters: What was supposed to be a rebuilding year has turned into another reset. The leadership contest will sap energy from the caucus and overshadow the party’s legislative work. 

The details: 

• Early contenders span all levels of government, Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, Yvan Baker, Ted Hsu, and Josh Matlow among them 
• The race will determine whether the OLP positions itself as a centrist alternative or a progressive rival to the NDP 
• With Ford dominant and Stiles fighting for visibility, the Liberals risk fading from the fall narrative entirely 

The bottom line: Until a new leader emerges, the Liberals are more likely to be a story about process than policy. 

4) NDP: Marit Stiles’ Second Chance 

Marit Stiles survived her leadership review with 68% support. Enough to stay on, but not enough to silence doubts. 

Why it matters: The NDP retained Official Opposition status in 2025 but lost ground in both seats and popular vote. Stiles needs a strong fall performance to re-energize members and prove she can take on Ford effectively. 

Go deeper: 

• Expect Stiles to push hard on healthcare access, affordability, and public-service investment, aiming to remind voters who is fighting for the “everyday Ontarian” 
• Internal dissent lingers, with some within the party questioning her ability to grow the base beyond traditional urban strongholds 
• Ford’s dominance and the Liberal vacuum give her both space and pressure to make noise 

The bottom line: Stiles’ survival buys her time but not immunity. She will need to land real hits on Ford to stay relevant through 2026. 

What’s Next 

Ontario’s fall session is shaping up as a stress test of economic nerve and political resilience. Ford wants to project strength amid crisis, but fiscal headwinds, opposition recalibration, and federal tension could make this session less about victory laps and more about managing risk in a province on edge.