All Four Major Contenders for Ottawa Mayor are Registered
Ottawa Municipal Election – Note 1
On the first day of registration, three noteworthy candidates (Jeff Leiper, Alex Lawson, and Neil Saravanamuttoo) signed up to run for Mayor of Ottawa.
Leiper, an incumbent Councillor of 12 years and current Deputy Mayor and chair of Planning is positioning himself as the progressive candidate. His campaign manager, Stephen Yardy, is a veteran NDP organizer who led campaigns for MPP Chandra Pasma and Councillor Laine Johnson.
Lawson, a homebuilder and businessperson, has significant Conservative organizing power behind him including names like Fred DeLorey and Jeff Ballingall.
Saravanamuttoo, an economist and city hall critic, has pledged $1 transit fare and to save $250 million in efficiencies at City Hall over his term.
Mayor Sutcliffe registered 3 weeks after his key opponents and a complaint that community newspaper ads that have appeared on May 5 are too much like election campaign material. In remarks to media, he indicated that he will continue cleaning the “mess” he inherited in the wake of the convoy and will work on his priority areas: transit, public safety, affordable housing, etc.
Leiper has revealed a partial platform with a heavy focus on transit and a pledge to build 1500 affordable housing units each year, and the idea that Ottawa should be “a city that works.” It is not known yet what his stance will be on the City’s fiscal position.
As in past elections, voters will want to know these frontrunner mayoral candidates’ plans for property tax rates and making progress on existing significant financial deficits for transit and infrastructure.
Lawson and Saravanamuttoo are the underdog candidates, but each will pick up voters from the right of Sutcliffe (Lawson) and from either side of Leiper (Saravanamuttoo).
Early Polling Puts Leiper Within Striking Distance of Sutcliffe
Recent polling by Liaison Strategies places Leiper within 5 points of Sutcliffe. This small gap is meaningful early in the campaign and indicates that Sutcliffe’s path to victory is narrower than previously thought. Sutcliffe’s disapproval rating has also increased 2 points in a month from 47% to 49% since an early April 2026 poll. The mayoral polling also included a scenario with Councillor Tim Tierney, who has mused about running. He polled at 11% and when removed, Sutcliffe’s figures increase. If the underdog candidates make a dent on either side of the front runners, this could create enough erosion for a tighter battle.
Given the length of municipal campaigns, most voter engagement will occur after signs go up in mid-September. The transit file will become more prominent at that time, as Ottawa’s already strained bus and LRT system will fill with returning students and the Federal government’s full time return to office edict in July (RTO5) takes effect. Serious concerns about the ability of the system to cope with more riders could amount to bad news for Mayor Sutcliffe.
Councillor Races to Watch
Two wards will have no incumbent in this election; Ward 15, Kitchissippi, because Leiper is running for Mayor and Ward 6, Stittsville, where incumbent Glen Gower has declared he is not running.
Kitchissippi Will See Two Well Known City Builders Facing Off
Longtime former CBC City Hall reporter Joanne Chianello will be running to replace Jeff Leiper (aforementioned, running for Mayor) in Kitchissippi Ward. She’ll be running against Michelle Groulx, the current Chief Advocate for the Ottawa Coalition of Business Improvement Areas, who will officially begin campaigning on June 1. Chianello’s early campaign platform focuses on transit, affordable housing, main streets, and transparency. Given Groulx’s background, a business and main street focus will be likely.
A City Hall Staffer Looks to Take the Leap in Stittsville
Chelsea Walton, a former Councillor’s Assistant to incumbent Councillor Gower has registered to run. Previous Councillors’ assistants to make this step include current Councillors Jessica Bradley and David Brown. While not as powerful an advantage as incumbency, Councillor’s assistants generally know many of the key relationships and issues within the ward.
Kanata South Is Shaping Up for a Rematch Of 2022
In Kanata South a federal public servant, Erin Coffin who last ran against incumbent Allan Hubley in 2022, has registered again. In 2022, a two-way vote split between Coffin and Rouba Fattal allowed incumbent Allan Hubley to be re-elected with 34% of the vote. Hubley has been a Councillor since 2010 but is vulnerable if no vote splitting occurs this time.
Orléans East-Cumberland Could Be a Vulnerable Seat
Barbara Daniela Gandolfo has registered in Orléans East-Cumberland where incumbent Councillor Matthew Luloff was charged with a drink driving offence and found guilty in March of this year. Gandolfo coordinates the Neighbourhood Watch program in Fallingbrook and is well known in Liberal circles, having worked on the 2025 campaigns of Stephen Blais and Marie-France Lalonde.
Horizon Ottawa Looking to Be More Influential In 2026
Horizon Ottawa, the progressive action group and the largest and only Third Party Advertiser has not yet registered. During the 2022 election, Horizon Ottawa endorsed a slate of candidates and will likely do so again this year despite none of the candidates they endorsed winning. They have traditionally emphasized donation transparency, challenging candidates to not accept donations from the development industry.
What Are We Watching For in the Weeks Ahead?
We anticipate the unveiling of Sutcliffe’s platform that will map his second term, as well as more platform pieces from his opponents. We’ll also be watching to see if Tim Tierney, who had mused about running for Mayor, makes an entrance, given his double-digit polling in the last Liaison poll.
The state of the transit system is likely to influence voters and how the City handles operations will be closely watched. Further delays and congestion are likely to have more of a headline effect this summer than in the past.