Fall Parliamentary Outlook: Trade Pressures, Shifting Public Priorities, and a Minority Legislative Strategy
Fall Parliamentary Outlook: Trade Pressures, Shifting Public Priorities, and a Minority Legislative Strategy
As Parliament is set to return, Canada’s political parties are preparing for a fall sitting that will be shaped by tensions with the United Stated and, in a throwback to the lead up to the 2025 election campaign, affordability concerns among Canadians.
While the trade war has driven much of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s agenda to date, public priorities are shifting. The federal Cabinet heard from pollster Jean-Marc Léger that, while tariffs were the number one issue for Canadians a year ago, the issue now ranks fourth.
Canadians remain concerned about the direction of the economy with the high cost of living rising back to the top list of concerns.
How will the Carney government take these challenges into consideration as it shapes its policy agenda?
Carney Returns with a Packed Agenda
Rather than assigning individual mandate letters to Ministers, Prime Minister Carney released a single mandate letter in May outlining seven priorities which have guided his government’s actions to date.
In August, the Prime Minister launched one of the pillars in his agenda, the Major Projects Office, to identify and expedite nation-building projects.
Two weeks after launching the Major Projects Office, the Prime Minister announced the first five projects to be reviewed through a “one project, one review” approach.
Two mining projects, two energy projects, and a port expansion made the initial list with the release also identifying six other initiatives at earlier stages. The first five projects are the government’s “safe list” as they appear to be further along and less controversial with stakeholder buy-in.
Building on the seven mandate priorities, the Prime Minister announced a suite of new measures aimed at protecting workers, industries, and supply chains. To enact these policies, the government will need to prioritize these measures in legislation and mobilize sufficient cross-party support to expedite their passage through committees and the House of Commons.
Adding further to the government’s legislative workload is the absence of legislation to implement key elements from the 2024 Fall Economic Statement. Several outstanding technical and tax measures, particularly those tied to Canada-US relations and Canada’s overall competitiveness, will need to be addressed in upcoming budget legislation.
The Prime Minister remains focused on policy with the advancement of the Major Projects and broader economic agenda, but political realities outside this core mandate – notably crime and the environment – are likely to weigh on the government as Parliament returns.
The government’s only major move on crime to date is proposed bail reform legislation expected later this fall.
Criticism of the government’s climate approach is also starting to be an issue of concern with Liberal caucus members. How Carney manages these disparate political concerns while expediting his government’s own priorities will be a key dynamic to watch.
While the Carney government seeks to shape the Fall session around its seven priorities, and now bail reform, it will also be anticipating a CUSMA renegotiation. The government has already announced it will launch new consultations this fall to assess Canadian priorities in this new global trade environment.
While the government manages a packed legislative agenda, Prime Minister Carney will also face the challenge of Question Period—an arena where it is difficult to excel right away. Though not directly consequential to delivering on his mandate, his performance will be closely watched, especially against an experienced Conservative Leader eager to return to the Chamber.
The Conservatives Get their Leader Back in the House
Fresh off a by-election win in August after losing his Ottawa-area seat in April, Pierre Poilievre is set to make his return to Parliament and has already laid out the Conservatives’ four priorities for the fall: the cost-of-living, unemployment, crime, and immigration reform.
The Conservative Leader has already made policy announcements in line with these priorities including restoring self-defence rights, eliminating the temporary foreign worker program, and cutting red tape and taxes for building housing. We can expect to hear more from Poilievre and the Conservative caucus on these issues in their interventions both inside and out of the House of Commons.
While we saw Conservatives vote with the government to expedite the passage of Bill C-5 An Act to enact the Free Trade and Labour Mobility in Canada Act and The Building Canada Act, the Conservatives seem poised to contrast themselves against government action (or what they will frame as inaction). On issues related to bail reform, expect this to be a flashpoint between the two major parties – Conservatives will be making this and other reforms to the criminal justice system a key plank of the fall session.
Where Will the Liberals Find their Next Dance Partner?
The Liberals’ minority status means support from other parties – the NDP, Bloc, or even the Conservatives – is important for passing legislation this fall. With the NDP having lost much of its political influence in the House after its showing in the general election, the Liberals have lost their most recent dance partner.
Given the NDP no longer has official party status, it will be challenged to try to find space in the crowded political landscape to press the Liberals to protect social investments like pharmacare and dental care amid an “austerity Budget.” Look for NDP leadership hopefuls who are in the House of Commons to position themselves on the national stage, such as MP Heather MacPherson.
The Bloc Québécois is expected to push the government to protect the Quebec aluminum sector and its workers, along with steadfast support for Quebec dairy farmers as the government starts the CUSMA renegotiations. The Bloc will also seek to capitalize on the Liberals perceived lack of clarity on fighting climate change.
Adding to this new parliamentary dynamic, on the committee front, the Conservatives and Bloc now have a majority together and will be able to amend government legislation without an NDP presence to run cover for the Liberals.
Carney’s Liberals will need to quickly flex their parliamentary chops if they hope to enact their legislative priorities as quickly as this Prime Minister wants to move.
All Roads Lead to the Long-Awaited Budget
After facing criticism for not delivering a spring Budget, the government has announced a full Budget for this October. This comes as the economy cools under the strain of trade uncertainty, complicating fiscal projections.
Prime Minister Carney has indicated a focus on both austerity and investment – a balance that will be difficult to strike. Additionally, all departments have been tasked with identifying 15% in savings over the next three years.
How the government intends to deliver on its “spend less to invest more” mantra will be on full display in the choices it makes in this year’s Budget. Here is what we are watching for:
- Large investments in defence spending
- Funding for the Major Projects Office
- A clearer vision for Build Canada Homes
- Protections for workers and industries impacted by tariffs
- Major changes to the public service as it relates to AI and Departmental spending plans
Want to learn more? Listen to our return to parliament podcast episode.