U.S. Midterm Madness: What Does a Blue Swing Mean for Canada?

After a night in which Democrats retook the House and Senate, and made major gains in gubernatorial races, the final two years of President Donald Trump’s administration could look like a sea change in American politics.

Americans have been grappling with mounting affordability pressures, compounded by a prolonged military campaign against Iran which has had resulting energy costs across the country. But what unfolds south of the border matters greatly to Canada as the last two years has demonstrated.

Meanwhile, Canada–U.S. trade talks have resumed. Prime Minister Mark Carney has noted that Washington has withdrawn several contentious demands, but cautioned at the Commonwealth Summit in Antigua: “they’re asking less and they’re offering more, but we’re not quite there.”

Many Canadians may welcome the results after the Trump administration’s treatment of Canada. But Democrats, too, have flexed their protectionist muscles under Presidents Obama and Biden, albeit with a smile and a pat on the back. As Democratic Congressman Jim Himes recently put it, “superficially everything will be different…don’t expect a Democratic administration to all of a sudden be more liberal on trade.”

The question, then, is whether divided government in D.C. opens the door to a more stable bilateral relationship, or makes Canada an even more convenient target in an extended domestic political fight.

As pundits and prognosticators parse the results, Canadians, governments, and businesses alike will be asking a simpler question: What does it mean for us?

A Blue Congress Does Not Mean Tariff Relief

• President Trump has imposed tariffs on Canada largely through long-standing statutory authorities, including Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act and Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, with the stroke of a pen. Those tariffs will not simply vanish; the administration still holds the whip hand
• Congress has so far been something of a paper tiger on tariffs: plenty of protest, but little concrete action to reverse them
• Canadians should watch for Democrats seeking targeted limits on tariffs or broader reforms to presidential trade powers. But the presidential veto and Senate procedural hurdles could make those efforts more sound than fury

The Political Calculus in Battleground States

• As November 3 approached, some Republican candidates in swing states distanced themselves from Trump’s approach to Canada. Michigan Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers, for example, called for an end to the tariff war in an ad, while downing a Labatt Blue
• In Maine, Senator Susan Collins lost a tough race despite the president granting some tariff relief on Canadian imports important to the state
• Canadians should watch whether newly elected Democrats join Republicans from trade-dependent states and districts in challenging the tariffs. The test is whether their political costs begin to outweigh their perceived benefits in American communities

Other Avenues for a Fight

• A Democratic House, particularly alongside a Democratic Senate, could make life more uncomfortable for the Trump administration, even where Congress cannot directly undo tariffs
• Democratic control would bring committee chairs and control of agendas, including at House Ways and Means, along with hearings on Canada–U.S. trade and more opportunities for congressional engagement. It could also give Canadian Liberals greater scope to draw on longstanding relationships with Democrats on Capitol Hill
• Canada has run secondary channels of outreach with U.S. governors. Last year, Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey hosted a Boston summit where six Northeast governors, including Vermont’s Republican Phil Scott, met with premiers including Ontario’s Doug Ford. On November 3, Healey, Scott, and the governors of New York, Connecticut, and New Hampshire were re-elected. Maine and Rhode Island, the other two states in the group, stayed in Democratic hands. Democrats also held or gained governorships across much of the Great Lakes and border region. Governors cannot lift Section 232 or Section 338 tariffs, but they give Canada allies who can make the case to Washington
• Canadians should watch, between now and the 120th Congress taking office in January, for more federal and provincial outreach to Congress, louder opposition to tariffs in Washington and, crucially, how Trump and his Cabinet respond