Brad Bradford Officially Enters Mayoral Race, Will Anyone Noteworthy Follow?

On the first day of registration, sitting Councillor Brad Bradford officially signed up to run for Mayor as he continues to try and stave off any middle- to right-leaning candidates from entering the race.

Bradford’s path to victory against Mayor Chow means having to make a dent in the Midtown-Downtown-Scarborough support she achieved in her by-election win. Additional candidates who will split the anti-Chow votes will make it harder for Bradford to secure the votes needed to unseat a generally popular Mayor.

Mayor Olivia Chow has also announced she will be running for a second term. No Mayor in the City of Toronto since amalgamation has lost their first re-election bid. Polling continues to show her with a steady double-digit lead.

As Bradford tries to assemble the centre-right alliance which helped guide John Tory to victory in past elections, the withdrawal of Tory, reluctance from Michael Ford and Anthony Furey to enter the race, and silence from other potential right-leaning candidates could mean he has successfully stifled their organizing.

It could also mean that the right is content to allow Bradford a shot in an uphill campaign. Comments from Tory’s camp, post-decision to not run, makes it appear that Tory’s organizers are not flocking to Bradford’s side. The indication is that Bradford’s aggressive approach and attacks on Tory alienated much of that team and prevented them from becoming more involved.

Incumbent Councillor Registrations Are Slow, Expectedly

Incumbent Councillors also frequently delay their registration to try and lure as many names as possible to crowd the field. To date, only Councillor Carroll, Colle, Crisanti and Myers have registered, with none of them expected to be challenged for their seat.

There have been a few interesting developments in two wards where we know we will have a new Councillor come November.

Replacing Bradford in Beaches-East York

With Brad Bradford running for Mayor, the Beaches-East York seat is sure to be a lively contest. Former CTV journalist Natalie Johnson has put her name forward in a field of seven candidates which includes (former) local park supervisor James Dann, but is otherwise light on name recognition.

Johnson’s comments about her campaign priorities seem to align her more closely with Bradford, despite her assertion that her residents feel disconnected from City Hall in a ward represented by Bradford for the last 8 years.  She has also not ruled out the potential to receive endorsements from either candidate.

This ward voted heavily in favour of Chow in the by-election, so we will see if Johnson’s positioning moves closer to Bradford, or Chow as time progresses.

Retiring Gord Perks Opens Up Parkdale-High Park

In 2022, Councillor Perks was challenged unexpectedly by a grassroots progressive activist challenger who very nearly won the seat despite being endorsed by neither major Mayoral candidate. Now, after 20 years as a leading progressive voice on City Council, Perks has decided to “try his hand at other things” and retire from this role.

Community organizer Diana Chan McNally is seen to be the progressive favourite for this seat in the early going and likely to receive endorsements from across the progressive spectrum, including Labour Council, Progress Toronto, and the Chow campaign.

There are rumblings of another progressive challenger waiting in the wings to register, but as we saw in the 2022 election, there is plenty of space on the progressive ballot in Parkdale-High Park.

Third Party Advertisers’ Registration on Hold

Progress Toronto and A Better City (ABC) Toronto are the closest the City of Toronto has to political parties, putting their preferred candidates forward as aligned toward the same goals.

They are also expected to be the two biggest Third Party Advertisers in the upcoming municipal campaign. Both have not yet registered with the Elections Office, but anyone on social media will likely have seen their recent attack ads targeting Mayoral frontrunners.

Progress Toronto is left-wing politically and the more experienced organization, formerly led by Chow’s future Chief-of-Staff. They have a track record of success making their preferred candidates competitive and then elected. In the 2022 election, they had five of their nine endorsed candidates (Morley, Bravo, Malik, Moise, Myers) elected to office, then endorsed and supported Olivia Chow for Mayor in 2023.

ABC Toronto is new to the Third Party Advertiser scene, being founded in 2025 with an appearance from Brad Bradford at their launch. This organization was largely created to provide an answer to Progress Toronto’s activities and highlight candidates who will best represent the centre-right.

ABC Toronto has been trying to collect the names and contacts of people who believe Olivia Chow has failed as Mayor and Toronto needs change. The big question is: will this be a change election? Are enough people upset and motivated to vote for change? Recent polling would suggest that only Chow’s weakest areas (Etobicoke, York) during the by-election, which brought her to power, are keen to see change.

What Are We Watching in The Weeks Ahead?

Bradford’s recent public comments about the use of public dollars to fund a ‘shadow re-election campaign’  may have forced Chow to register sooner than expected.

There also appears to be a developing situation with Councillor Kandavel and an OPP investigation that is sure to impact the Council race as more information is made available. Police investigations have not prevented Councillors from running and winning in the past, but it will still cast a shadow over any potential re-election campaign.

We will also be looking at some potentially vulnerable Council seat races (York South-Weston, Scarborough-Rouge Park, Scarborough Southwest), diving into reasons for their vulnerability, and whether we might begin to see big names start to register.