Canada’s Urban Demographic Shift: Edmonton Leads, Toronto Retreats

New demographic data show that Canada’s population contracted last year as changes in immigration policy rippled across the country. Granular data from Statistics Canada details how this dynamic played out at a local level between July 1, 2024, to July 1, 2025 (2024/2025).

Almost every Canadian census metropolitan area (CMA) grew at a slower rate than the year before. In 2023/2024, Moncton had the highest growth in Canada (6.9%). In 2024/2025, the fastest growing CMA (Edmonton) only saw its population increase by 3.1% year-over-year (YoY). Moncton (3% YoY) and Calgary (2.9% YoY) rounded up the top 3.

Toronto and Kamloops were the only two major cities that recorded population declines. The demographic shift recorded in Toronto was particularly notable as the city went from adding just under 270,000 people in 2023/2024 to losing nearly 1,000 residents in 2024/2025.

Interprovincial Migration: Alberta CMAs Are Gaining, Ontario CMAs Are Losing

As in previous years, Alberta continued to attract thousands of interprovincial migrants in 2024/2025. However, the gravitational pull shifted as Edmonton overtook Calgary as the Canadian CMA with the largest net interprovincial migration surplus (11,742). Calgary had the second-highest net surplus (11,195). But growth was not limited to Alberta’s two largest cities; Lethbridge and Red Deer also grew thanks to interprovincial migration.

Ontario experienced a completely different dynamic. Ottawa (3,581) and Kingston (253) were the only two Ontario CMAs that witnessed net interprovincial migration growth in 2024/2025. The other 14 CMAs once again recorded net deficits. The last time any of these cities gained from interprovincial migration was 2019/2020.

Torontonians continue to leave in droves for other provinces and Ontario cities. For the fifth consecutive year, Toronto recorded the largest net deficits among Canadian CMAs for both interprovincial migration (-12,698) and intraprovincial migration (-64,794).

Notable Winning and Losing Streaks

• Despite being major business and population hubs, Canada’s three largest CMAs (Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver) have historically struggled to retain residents. All three have recorded net intraprovincial migration deficits for 24 years in a row
• Montreal, Thunder Bay, and Winnipeg have lost residents to other provinces on a net basis for 24 consecutive years dating back to 2001/2002
• Victoria is the only Canadian CMA to boast 24 straight years of net interprovincial migration surpluses. Kelowna has the second longest active streak (23 years)

Population Gains from Immigration and Temporary Residents Decline

The immigration data at the local level showed a mixed picture in 2024/2025. Compared to the year before, 19 Canadian CMAs recorded a higher number of immigrants (permanent residency – PR track) while 23 saw a smaller influx. However, immigration numbers remained well above pre-pandemic levels across the country.

The 2024/2025 data for non-permanent residents (NPR) clearly shows the impacts of the changes made by the federal government to the temporary foreign worker (TFW) and international student programs. Every CMA saw their net non-permanent resident balance shrink YoY.

16 CMAs went from a net NPR surplus in 2023/2024 to a net deficit in 2024/2025. Toronto recorded the sharpest reversal of trend, going from a surplus of 228,025 in 2023/2024 to a deficit of -44,792 in 2024/2025.

Canada’s Population Shrinks: What’s Next?

Canada’s population shrank by 0.4% between July 1, 2025, and January 1, 2026. National and provincial data for the last two quarters of 2025 indicates that Canadian CMAs will experience very limited demographic growth in 2025/2026.

Given its persistent interprovincial and intraprovincial migration deficits and the reduction in immigration (PR) and NPR targets, Toronto is the most likely to see its population contract again in 2025/2026.

On the other side of the country, the demographic trajectory of British Columbia CMAs is the most uncertain. The province has now recorded four straight quarters of negative population growth and has lost more than 40,000 residents since January 1, 2025.

However, British Columbia turned its interprovincial migration fortune around in the first half of 2025/2026 with its first Q3/Q4 net surplus (2,731) since 2021. Except for Vancouver, BC CMAs tend to gain from intraprovincial migration, which may soften the impacts of the overall demographic decline currently underway.

The federal government signaled some flexibility on immigration by introducing measures to help employers hire temporary foreign workers. However, this should not impact the demographic trajectory of major Canadian cities as these changes are explicitly intended for rural employers outside of CMAs.

With limited growth generated by immigration, interprovincial and intraprovincial migration will be the main drivers for CMAs looking to expand in the coming years. Affordability (especially in housing) and meaningful economic and employment opportunities will extensively influence the ability of communities to retain and attract residents.