New Data: Canada’s Population Growth Flatlines

New demographic data for Canada for Q2, 2025, show: 

• Population growth: +0.1% between April 1 and July 1, 2025 
• New immigrants: -22.9% year-over-year 
• Net non-permanent resident inflow versus outflow: -58,719 
• Interprovincial migration: -11.1% year-over-year 

New population data from Statistics Canada shows the extensive impacts of the changes made by the federal government to immigration and temporary resident policies.  

Population and migration growth patterns dramatically reversed.  

After recording ten consecutive quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) increases over 0.5% between 2022 and 2024, Canada’s population only grew by 0.1% between April 1 and July 1, 2025. 

Price Edward Island dethroned Alberta as the fastest-growing province in relative terms (+0.75% QoQ). Alberta had held the top spot for six straight quarters, adding 257,905 people during that period.  

At the opposite end of the spectrum, British Columbia was the only province to record negative population growth (-0.04%). BC is in the midst of an unprecedented two-quarter contraction. 

New Immigrants and Non-Permanent Residents Declined 

The number of new immigrants to Canada in Q2, 2025, declined by 22.9% compared to a year before.  

This trend was generalized across the country with immigration down QoQ and year-over-year (YoY) in every province except for Quebec.  

With the total number of international students and temporary foreign workers declining, Canada recorded a net non-permanent resident deficit for a third consecutive quarter in Q2, 2025.  

An estimated 199,050 non-permanent residents left the country during the quarter, which represents the largest exodus ever recorded for that category. With fewer non-permanent residents arriving (140,331), the net deficit reached 58,719 in Q2, 2025, the second largest on record. This was a sharp reversal from the record-high net surplus of 314,059 in Q3, 2023. 

Provincially, Ontario recorded the largest net non-permanent resident deficit (-37,397) followed by British Columbia (-14,699) in Q2, 2025.  

Notably, Quebec bucked provincial trends by recording the largest surplus (1,524). It also saw the sole QoQ and YoY immigration increases among provinces.  

Interprovincial Migration Slows, Ontario Retains More Residents 

With fewer international immigrants and non-permanent residents moving to Canada, renewed attention ought to be paid to interprovincial and intraprovincial migration as dynamics driving population changes in communities.  

The new data shows that, similar to Q1, 2025, overall interprovincial migration was down by more than 10% in Q2 compared to the year before.  

However, many Canadians are still keen to switch provinces for affordability, career changes, and quality of life reasons as total interprovincial migration remains strong compared to before the COVID-19 pandemic. A little over 110,000 migrated to another province in Q2, 2025, compared to approximately 97,000 in Q2, 2019.  

Ontario and Alberta have become the faces of interprovincial migration in recent years, but for completely different reasons. Ontario has now recorded 22 consecutive quarterly net interprovincial migration deficits while Alberta is riding a 16-quarter surplus streak. 

There might be a glimmer of hope for Ontario in the latest numbers as fewer people left the province in Q2, 2025, compared to past second quarters since the pandemic. As a result, its net interprovincial migration deficit (-6,154) shrank considerably to its lowest point for a second quarter since 2020. 

With fewer Ontarians on the move, every Canadian province welcomed less Ontario expats compared to the year before. The number of Ontarians moving to Atlantic Canada and Alberta declined by respectively 33.9% and 24.9% YoY in Q2, 2025. Having experienced a smaller contraction (-17%), British Columbia overtook Atlantic Canada as Ontarians’ second most popular destination behind Alberta. 

Alberta continued to have the largest net interprovincial migration surplus (+6,187) in Q2, 2025.  

While the number of Albertans leaving has remained relatively stable YoY, the level of Canadians moving to Wild Rose Country has started to decline. The numbers of in-migrants in the last four quarters have all been lower YoY. For instance, in-migrants to Alberta declined from 30,961 in Q2, 2024, to 26,297 in Q2, 2025. 

Housing and Labour Market Implications of Low Population Growth 

As the Government of Canada maintains lower immigration and non-permanent resident targets, total population growth is likely to continue to flatline.  

At the provincial level, a slowing economy could further taper the appetite for interprovincial migration as people may be hesitant to move amid economic and employment uncertainty.   

Slower population growth carries implications for the housing and labour markets. Demographics, high house prices, and limited supply fueled massive rent increases between 2019 and 2024 across Canada.  

With shifting population patterns, demand in the rental market has declined in many cities. An estimated 21 metropolitan areas saw the average asking rent for a two-bedroom apartment shrink between Q1, 2024, and Q1, 2025.  

Interestingly, a slower inflow of individuals and workers did not cause significant tightness in the Canadian labour market. Job vacancy rates across most provinces and industries are down compared to a year ago.  

While Canada is not out of tariff trouble yet, job vacancy rates could rise in certain industries if and when the economy rebounds. The experience of the COVID-19 pandemic teaches us that sectors that let employees go amid turmoil can sometimes struggle to get workers back, hindering their recovery. 

Sebastien Labrecque is the Chief Economist and Executive Director of StrategyCorp’s Institute of Public Policy and Economy.