British Columbia Election 2024: NDP Squeak Out Narrow Majority 

On October 19, 2024, British Columbians cast their ballots in a closely contested provincial election that resulted in the New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Premier David Eby, holding on to a majority government.  

The NDP won 47 of the 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly, just meeting the 47-seat threshold.  

The Conservative Party of British Columbia, under John Rustad, made significant gains, capturing 44 seats, while the Green Party maintained its presence with two seats.  

The final turnout was 57.4%, higher than 2020, but lower than 2018. 

Key Takeaways: 

• NDP’s Narrow Majority: The NDP’s slim majority shows voters are becoming open to something new and signals potential challenges in governance, especially with a strengthened opposition. 

• Conservative Resurgence: The Conservatives’ substantial seat increase and emergence as the main opposition party marks a notable shift in the province’s political landscape, reflecting growing support for their platform and brand. 

Election Dynamics: 

The NDP focused on healthcare, housing affordability, and climate initiatives, while the Conservatives emphasized tax reductions, resource development, and public safety.  

The suspension of the BC United campaign and their endorsement of the Conservatives before the writ period provided a consolidated front against the NDP going into the election. 

Implications for Governance: 

The NDP’s narrow majority will require strategic collaboration and negotiation to advance their legislative agenda. They are currently struggling to nominate a speaker, and have reached out to Conservative MLAs in an attempt to maintain a majority of votes.  

The Conservatives’ strengthened position as the official opposition suggests a more robust challenge to NDP policies, particularly on economic and public safety fronts. 

What’s Next for the Conservatives? 

Following their major gains, BC’s Conservatives are now a strong opposition force, ready to challenge the NDP’s agenda on economic and environmental policies. Key for leader John Rustad will be solidifying the party’s platform around tax cuts, resource development, and public safety.  

To position themselves as a credible government-in-waiting, they’ll need to build out the party apparatus and present a pragmatic alternative, ready to lead if the NDP’s narrow majority falters. 

Looking Ahead: 

As the NDP embarks on its third consecutive term, the party will need to address the electorate’s concerns around public safety and affordability.  

John Rustad indicated that the Conservatives will take the first opportunity to bring the NDP government down, putting British Columbia potentially just a few by elections from a non-confidence vote or change up in government.