Trade War Averted?

The first few days of any election campaign necessarily involve ramping-up the campaign machinery. With that now well underway, each party will be trying to execute on their strategies to make connections with voters.  

We’ve seen each party leader on the road across the province trying to have their narrative punch through the considerable noise in the public conversation. 

Ford, who of course controlled the timing of the election, has focused his messaging on defending Ontario’s economic interests from the tariff threats from President Trump.  

Opposition Leader Marit Stiles and her NDP have so far focused on the personality of the leader and building up her personal brand as someone who is fighting for working people. She spent a good portion of the first week in “blue-orange” seats where the NDP are the main challenger to sitting PC MPPs. 

Facing Stiles in the “progressive primary” is Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie, who has focused her messaging heavily on healthcare. Most notably, we saw this on her campaign bus (which reads “2.5 million people have no family doctor”) and her Real Leaders Fix Healthcare ball cap, a nod to Ford’s now-famous Canada is Not For Sale hat. 

PCs Want to “Protect Ontario” 

While Ontarians aren’t happy about it, Premier Ford’s framing of the election “Protecting Ontario” from Donald Trump’s tariffs has proven prescient. Ford continues to control much of the narrative on the campaign trail, and his appearances on US news programs continue to frame the election issues in line with his desired strategy. However, with a 30 day reprieve from tariffs, it remains to be seen how this narrative will play out for the remaining three weeks of the campaign. Will the issue set change, or will the anger and newfound sense of patriotism set the tone for the rest of the election? 

Outside of the Trump tariffs news, week one of the campaign trail included a strong endorsement from the Laborer’s International Union of North America (LiUNA), who historically spent millions in third party campaign ads attacking the PCs. Many other unions have also followed suit with endorsements of Ford’s PCs. 

Other noteworthy endorsements have come in from mayors across Ontario who Ford has been working hard to build alignment with. Understanding the popularity of some municipal leaders, Ford is hoping to leverage this to keep himself at the top of the polls.  

Liberals Promise “More for You”  

The week one strategy for the Ontario Liberal Party (OLP) has been convincing Ontarians that the PC Party isn’t getting fundamentals such as healthcare and public safety right, and that Doug Ford is prioritizing electioneering rather than protecting Ontario jobs from American tariffs. Crombie has been trying to frame herself as the leader who will invest in the services Ontarians rely on.  

Building on the theme of putting Ontarians first, Crombie has made improving healthcare the early focus of the campaign, with the OLP’s kick-off in Barrie featuring a healthcare announcement, and another in Ottawa.  

She’s also spent time in Toronto, where she outlined her plan to make transit safer, and opened her campaign office in the riding of Mississauga East-Cooksville.  

The OLP campaign has so far focused on “back to the basics” announcements in areas where the party has historically held seats and could win them back, including from the PCs in the GTA suburbs, and the NDP in Toronto and Ottawa.  

NDP Commits to “Be on Your Side” 

In the first week of the campaign, the Ontario NDP’s strategy has emphasized affordability, healthcare, and infrastructure, positioning the party as the champion of working families. 

The promise to buy and remove tolls from Highway 407 underscores their focus on immediate relief from gridlock and reducing costs on households, while commitments to hire doctors and protect farmland highlight concerns over essential services and economic stability.  

In interviews Stiles has also presented herself as a strong negotiator on trade, aiming to counter Doug Ford’s tariff-focused campaign with a more practical and unified response. 

The locations of the announcements – Brampton (Highway 407), Scarborough (tariffs), Waterloo Region (farmland), and Windsor (union support) – suggest a dual approach. The NDP is targeting key suburban ridings where affordability is a pressing concern while reinforcing support in labor-heavy and agricultural areas. These choices indicate a strategy aimed at both defending traditional NDP strongholds and making inroads in competitive ridings where voters may be disillusioned with Ford’s leadership. 

PC Lead Could Be Largest this Century 

The vast majority of public polling shows Ford’s PCs continuing their commanding lead. One Ipsos poll showed the PCs support as high as 50 per cent, representing the largest lead any party has had in Ontario since the turn of the century.   

While Crombie’s Liberals have begun running ads specifically on the issue of Ford calling an early election, any blowback from voters on this issue has not yet shown up in the research.  

We will be watching closely to see if the 30 day pause on Trump’s tariffs will impact voter intention or the issues driving the conversation in week two of the campaign.