Ford Calls Early Ontario Election; Seeks Fresh Mandate

Riding high in the polls and benefiting from the spotlight defending Canada on the world stage, Premier Doug Ford has asked voters to entrust him with a fresh mandate on the promise that he fight back against whatever economic challenges Donald Trump throws Canada’s way. 

No early election call in Ontario goes by without the spectre of David Peterson’s fateful decision to do the same thing in 1990, only to lose in a shocking upset to Bob Rae’s NDP. The early conversation in this campaign will likely revolve around the timing of an election. 

But there are very real issues at play.  

Affordability and cost of living remain top of mind, while Ontario’s healthcare system continues to face capacity challenges. Public safety and congestion issues also dominate the headlines frequently. 

Should Trump follow through on his 25% tariff threat, the impact will be immense.  

While opposition parties will call Ford’s early election call opportunistic, a potential trade war with the world’s largest economy will require all parties to answer for how they would deal with Trump 2.0. 

PC Election Strategy: Confident Ford Seeks Third Majority 

Premier Doug Ford is confidently stepping into an election campaign seeking a third straight majority government. Aside from leading Canada’s premiers in advocating against Trump’s proposed tariffs, the Premier is expected to stick to the familiar themes which won him the last election in 2022: 

• Cost of living and affordability 

• Ontario workers and the economy 

• Access to healthcare 

• Building critical infrastructure 

PCs Enter Campaign with Many Advantages 

With the advantage of incumbency and controlling the timing of the election, the PC Party appears quite ready to face the electorate. They enter this election with an experienced team and a considerable financial advantage.  

While positioning himself as the champion of affordability, which remains the number one issue for voters, the Premier and candidates will have to defend the decision to spend money and resources on an early election.  

Liberal Election Strategy: Ontario Liberals Look for Resurrection 

Ontario Liberals will need to differentiate themselves from their Federal cousins and position themselves as the only party who can defeat Doug Ford’s PCs if they want to win government or at least regain party status.  

Despite electing popular Mississauga Mayor Bonnie Crombie as its new leader in late 2023, the Ontario Liberals have grappled with sharing a name with an unpopular Federal Liberal Party, and constant waves of attacks from the cash-rich governing PCs framing them of being pro-carbon tax and out of touch with Ontarians.  

Shifting Election Readiness 

The Ontario Liberals have had to rush much of their post-2022 election rebuilding efforts, including fundraising and candidate nomination to accommodate the early election.  

They’ve essentially lost a year’s worth of preparation time, limiting their ability to as effectively counter PC claims, and promote Bonnie Crombie as a Premier in waiting.  

They will have to make up for this lost fundraising time by using key election moments such as debates to get their message out to Ontarians.  

The Liberals will argue that Ontarians should hold the Premier accountable for his missteps and the cost of living increases voters have faced. To-date, Ontarians have blamed the Trudeau Liberals, but with the Prime Minister’s resignation, the Crombie Liberals will try to pin these issues on Ford.   

Different, but not too Different  

Crombie, a self-proclaimed centrist, must define herself as a true alternative to Doug Ford, which may be difficult due to the PC Party’s similar centrist and “say yes” approach to governing Ontario over the past four years.  

To differentiate herself, she will need to emphasize differences in values like how she would govern, rather than only on specific policies themselves.  

Expect a campaign of “yes” – meaning platform planks outlining investments in healthcare, infrastructure, education, transportation, and any other areas where the Ford PCs could be blamed for under-investing.  

She will also need to defend her left flank of potential voters from the NDP by ensuring that she does not stray too far to the right of centre. 

NDP Election Strategy: Third in Polls, Second in Seats: NDPers Impatient 

The Ontario NDP faces a steep polling deficit as it enters the election, and to win government it must prove it can represent all Ontarians.  

When most voters are feeling economic pain, high costs of living and financial insecurity, the NDP need to broaden their appeal, pin these failures on the Ford government, and curb their tendency to over-emphasize the needs of the most socio-economically marginalized. 

A Tough Path to Victory 

With Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives seen as strong on the economy and a resurgent Liberal Party vying for progressive voters, the NDP must hold its base while persuading centrists to choose them over the Liberals. This is a steep challenge, especially if the Liberals maintain momentum and are seen as the party who can beat the PCs. 

Marit Stiles’ Leadership Test 

In her first campaign as leader, Marit Stiles must raise her profile, critique Ford’s record on the economy, scandals, and services, and present an optimistic economic vision that resonates across classes.  

Having a plan to reduce Ontarian’s cost of living is key to courting voters outside their base. Expanding into suburban ridings, traditionally tough ground for the NDP, will be essential. 

Polls show PCs in the Pole Position 

Polling suggests that Ontario Premier Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservative Party are well in the lead as the election kicks-off. 

An Abacus Data survey released in mid-January 2025 showed the Progressive Conservatives with the support of 47% of voters. The Ontario Liberal Party trailed with 24% support, followed by the Ontario NDP at 19%, and the Green Party with 7%.  

These numbers give Ford’s party the pole position and puts them in a very strong place; heading into the election call, Ford said he wants “the largest mandate in Ontario’s history.”