Ontario Continues with Plan to Build and Improve Services in Fall Fiscal Update

Ontario Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy released the 2024 Fall Economic Statement, entitled Building Ontario For You, paving the way for a potential early election in 2025.  

The statement highlights the political priorities the government believes will be important – particularly if it is heading to the polls: 

• Economic growth

• Building public infrastructure  

• Addressing concerns about cost of living increases  

In effect, these are a doubling down on the same priorities prominent in the government’s “Plan to Build Ontario” that carried Premier Ford and his team through the 2022 election. 

With this FES, the Ford government has clearly landed on what it believes are winning political priorities that align well with Ontario voters and their current outlook. These priorities helped get the government re-elected to an enlarged majority in 2022, and they’re hoping voters will continue to reward them for keeping their focus in the same place. 

What this means for Ontario politics through the rest of 2024 and into next year is that we’re likely to see more announcements on these same themes and consistent reminders of both the successes of the government so far, and the work that remains to be done on these key priorities. 

FES by the numbers 

The Ford government continues to base its fiscal plan on increased revenues enabling targeted spending that supports economic growth.  

It is now projecting a deficit of $6.6 billion in 2024–25 — an improvement of $3.2 billion from its previous budget in March of this year. The government now projects a deficit of $1.5 billion in 2025–26, followed by a surplus of $0.9 billion in 2026–27. 

While the province’s credit rating was upgraded in June 2024 to AA, the Financial Accountability Officer notes that spending pressures and macroeconomic conditions could negatively impact the fiscal outlook. However, the Fall Economic Statement recommitted to the government’s fiscal plan with the goal of balancing the budget by 2026-27.  

Ford’s Pre-election Priorities – affordability, economy, healthcare 

Keeping costs down for Ontarians – the government announced another extension to the Gas Tax Reduction until June 2025, which purports to save households $380 on average.  

Despite some controversy, the government also announced that eligible Ontario taxpayers can expect to receive a $200 rebate in their mailboxes in early 2025 (as well as $200 per child under 18).   

The government also has positioned an additional contribution of $100 million to the Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund (OMPF), which it hopes could help blunt municipal property tax increases in rural and northern municipalities, some of whom were facing high cost increases from the OPP and social service pressures. 

Building Ontario – the government continues to spend on initiatives designed to stimulate Ontario’s economy, like increasing funding through the Advanced Manufacturing and Innovation Competitiveness stream, releasing the next phase of its life sciences strategy and increasing funding for Invest Ontario to attract investment to the province.  

Improving healthcare and services – the government is working to address current pressures in the healthcare system by expanding the Learn and Stay grant to include family medicine; although the funding won’t kick in until 2026 and resolve immediate pressures the primary care sector is facing.  

The government also announced $150M over two years to help people start or grow their families through the Ontario Fertility Program and a supporting tax credit. The government also announced support for seniors including an expansion of Senior Active Living Centres. 

Engaging the Ford Government amid election speculation 

With rumours swirling of a looming election, it will be a challenge for the government to maintain a path to a balanced budget while introducing new spending measures to meet the growing needs of Ontarians and the economic headwinds it is likely to face.  

The government will likely focus the upcoming budget on continuing to deliver on its mandate – while attempting to build the Premier’s popularity should we be in an election period in 2025.  

As the government prepares for a potential campaign budget, the Leader of the Opposition, Marit Stiles, has launched a new ad campaign as she continues introducing herself to voters, while Bonnie Crombie faces a series of targeted ads from the progressive conservatives as she works to “kick-start” the Ontario Liberals.  

After an extended summer break, MPPs are energized to be back at Queen’s Park to help deliver the government’s messages from the Fall Economic Statement. Over the next few months, expect government to turn their minds to revamping their “Plan to Build Ontario,” listening to stakeholders, and focusing on delivering local wins for their ridings.