What Each Party’s Promises Tell Us About the Voters They Are Courting

At the end of week two of the 2025 federal election campaign, Mark Carney and the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) remain in the lead ahead of Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC). Here are the horserace numbers from polling aggregator 338Canada:   

• LPC 44%
• CPC 38%
• NDP 8%
• BQ 6%
• GPC 2% 

This past week was hectic politically and dominated by the shifting sands of the Trump administration’s tariff announcement and implementation targeting Canada’s auto sector – which campaigns needed to respond to. With the tariff-centric week of the campaign now in the rearview mirror, and both leaders’ debates set for next week, this third week of the campaign may be the most ‘boring’ of the election.  

Campaigns are largely on auto-pilot for the coming days, releasing announcements and holding rallies on a reliable schedule as the leaders crisscross the country. Though, as this past week demonstrated, some opposition research may add some excitement to this week of the campaign.  

Following some rushed nominations, this week saw the CPC dropping four candidates and the LPC dropping two. While candidate nominations close as of April 7th, more may drop as parties deploy their opposition research tactics and findings. Nonetheless, at the time of writing, the LPC, CPC, and NDP each presented a full slate of 343 candidates before the Elections Canada deadline.  

Canadians also got their first glance at all five major party leaders this week as they appeared on Radio-Canada’s ‘Cinq chefs, une élection’ program on April 3. There were no surprises, with all leaders largely sticking to their messaging and policy agendas.  

Build Canada and the Liberal Voter Base 

Midway through the campaign, Carney’s marquee policy commitments are all about “building Canada” but also speak to both the progressive and conservative voters the party hopes to sway with its centrist approach.  

On the domestic front, the Liberals are appealing to younger voters and millennials across the political spectrum with a suite of commitments on housing that include: 

• Getting the government into the business of home building 

• Doubling the pace of construction over the next decade 

• Eliminating the GST for first-time homebuyers

On the tariff response, Carney has put up a tough Canadian front to entice older voters who are most likely to be preoccupied with the Trump issue. Liberal campaign commitments under this umbrella include a series of measures aimed at building Canadian businesses and protecting workers, territory the CPC worked hard to occupy before (and into) the election campaign. The LPC announcements include: 

• Paying skilled trade apprenticeship training costs 

• Significant investments to make Canada’s auto sector more competitive and support Canadian auto workers 

• A new fund to build trade-enabling infrastructure

Energy, the Economy, and Public Safety Anchor the Conservative Voter Coalition 

Conservatives continue to battle against the carbon tax. This continues to be a significant issue, and the Conservatives have committed to rescinding the carbon tax for both consumers and industrial actors in the economy. Conservatives also have found a second differentiating commitment from the Liberals to remove the Impact Assessment Act (which the CPC has dubbed the “no new pipelines act”). These two major commitments strike at the heart of economic growth and resource development. 

Conservatives have also committed to life sentences for drug, arms, and human trafficking.  

These tip-of-the-spear campaign promises speak to the larger issues of the economy and public safety – and to the voter coalition the Conservatives want to bring together. The CPC is appealing to a working age, pay cheque-earner demographic who do not feel safe in their own communities, and particularly those who perceive themselves to have a lower standard of living than their parents/grandparents.  

NDP Focuses on Affordability as It Continues to Target Progressive Voters 

Affordability has been a central theme of the NDP’s campaign so far as the party seeks to appeal to voters focused on the cost of living. With the end of the Trudeau era, the NDP hopes to capitalize on the recentering of the LPC by wrestling the progressive vote away.   

As part of its focus on affordability, the NDP has made several housing commitments since of the start of the campaign, including building three million homes by 2030 and implementing a national rent control. The NDP is hoping these measures will resonate with tenants facing housing affordability challenges and young adults struggling to buy their first homes. 

Going forward, the NDP will also focus on its ability to hold the government to account and defend the interests of working people. The party will continue to appeal to voters by trying to take credit for the dental coverage and pharmacare programs. 

The Bloc Targets Trump-Focused Voters and Seniors 

With the Liberals holding a nearly 20-point lead in the polls in Québec, the Bloc Québécois (BQ) finds itself in a battle for second with the Conservatives.  

Trade has been central to the first two weeks of the Bloc’s campaign. The BQ is trying to lump the LPC and the CPC together by arguing they would both put Ontario’s interests ahead of Québec’s. The Bloc argued that Québec representatives should be included during the CUSMA renegotiations and that the updated agreement should require the province’s approval before signature. 

Combined with its emphasis on protecting supply management, these commitments are intended to appeal to voters for whom Donald Trump is the ballot question. On this issue, the Bloc has an inherent disadvantage given it cannot position itself as the next government that will directly deal with the Trump Administration. They are left trying to convince voters that a strong BQ contingent in the House of Commons is the only way to protect Québec against Trump. 

Beyond trade, the Bloc rolled out several commitments targeting seniors, another key group the party is courting. After seeing its bill on this issue die when Parliament dissolved, the BQ reiterated its promise to increase Old Age Security by 10 per cent for seniors between the ages of 65 to 74.