The Debate Amongst Parties Over the Ballot Question – Which Party Understands the Moment?

As we enter week two of the federal election, most polls have the Liberal Party of Canada ahead of the Conservatives by a slim margin. Polling aggregator 338 Canada has the horserace numbers at:

• 42% LPC
• 38% CPC
• 9% NDP
• 6% BQ
• 3% GPC

Tariffs and President Donald Trump continued to dominate the first week of the campaign. The parties all announced campaign commitments focused broadly on economic measures and how we protect ourselves from American tariffs on April 2nd.   

To this end, Prime Minister Carney returned to Ottawa to chair a meeting of his U.S. – Canada Cabinet Committee and addressed the nation as Prime Minister in response to the threats. His comments made news around the world.  

“The old relationship we had with the United States, based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation, is over,” stated Carney.  

Carney subsequentially spoke to President Trump on March 28th. The meeting was described as a “constructive conversation” and the two leaders agreed that federal Minister, Dominic LeBlanc, and U.S. Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, would continue discussions going forward.  

Carney Positions Himself as the Best Choice to Protect Canada 

Carney’s first full week on the campaign trail sought to demonstrate his abilities as someone who can effectively deal with what many voters perceive as the top issues in this election: Trump and tariffs. Carney’s dual role as Liberal Leader and Prime Minister give him the opportunity to both campaign and govern, at a time when Canadians are especially looking for strong leadership from Ottawa.  

As Prime Minister, Carney’s handling of the “Trump file” and his first call with the President were an apparent success.  The change in tone from President Trump following his call with Carney was also widely noted.  For now, the talk of Canada becoming the 51st state and referring to the Prime Minister as “Governor” have subsided.   

On the campaign trail, Carney focused on commitments to defence spending, enabling trade infrastructure, and a response plan to U.S. auto tariffs.   

Going into the election, there were questions raised in some corners regarding Carney’s ability to hold the progressive wing of the party together while taking a more centrist approach. For now, this discussion seems to be muted by the party’s rapid rise in public opinion polling.  Moreover, there is now data showing the Liberals are benefitting both from Conservative and progressive NDP vote switching to the Liberals.   

Conservatives try to fight election on the economy and affordability 

The Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) has leaned heavily into economic measures at home to increase investment in Canada. This includes announcements on a TFSA top-up, lowering the rate on the first income tax backet to 12.75 per cent (down from 15 per cent), and tax deferral for capital gains where the gains are reinvested in Canada.  

The CPC also promised measures specific to seniors to assist with the cost of living for retirees. Polls currently show seniors, who vote in high numbers and often support Conservatives in large numbers, trending more towards the Liberals in this election. These measures are intended to attract some of those voters back. 

More broadly, the Conservatives still hold a notable lead on the issue of cost of living. This is why the CPC is trying to make affordability the ballot question for as many voters as possible rather than fighting Carney and the Liberals on the issue of Trump and tariffs.  

The CPC narrative of “making Canada stronger so we are less reliant on the Americans” is a clear offshoot of this, and ties in both affordability and “protecting Canada” themes. Expect more announcements along this narrative track in the coming week. 

NDP Looks to break though amid a two-horse race 

Jagmeet Singh focused on two common themes for the NDP during the first week of the campaign: affordability and protecting workers. To stop bleeding voter intentions to the Liberals, the NDP targeted Mark Carney’s Brookfield past to paint him as pro-corporation and “not in it for working Canadians.” 

Staying relevant in this campaign is critical for the NDP as the campaign enters its second week and looking ahead to the leaders’ debates. With one lap down and four to go, the NDP will try to punch through this two-horse race with more targeted messaging on Trump. It will also look to “fuse” Mr. Poilievre and Mr. Carney on key policy issues (e.g., pipelines and taxation) to make them unpalatable to progressive voters.  

In parallel to the national stage battle, the NDP will focus more on local ridings and some critical blue/orange fights (e.g., Kenora, Skeena Bulkley-Valley, Elmwood-Transcona, Courtenay-Alberni, and North Island). In some cases, this might lead the NDP to push a strategic voting message in the stretch run to counter the national narrative around a Liberal majority being needed to stop the Conservatives. 

Bloc doubles down on supply management and Energy East 

With Trump and tariffs as the key issue for Canadians early in this election, Yves-François Blanchet spent the first week campaigning in locations that represent the Québec industries the Bloc Québécois (BQ) vows to protect against the Americans. As a sign of the times, Trump is mentioned 14 times in the Bloc’s newly-released election platform!   

With Canada’s dairy industry repeatedly in the line of fire of Trump, the BQ doubled down on supply management, arguing Canada should not make any new concessions during trade negotiations. The Bloc promised to re-introduce its bill to protect supply management as soon as the House of Commons returns.    

With many of its ridings encompassing rural areas, the Bloc hopes its heavy emphasis on supply management will help secure voter support in these regions.  

With renewed discussions about reviving the ‘Energy East’ pipeline through Québec, the BQ re-iterated its opposition to the project. Mr. Blanchet argued Energy East only has downsides for Québec, including environmental risks. In addition to infuriating other provinces, the BQ finds itself at odds with Premier Legault who recently signalled he was open to projects like Energy East, contingent on social acceptability amongst Quebecers. 

As the first week of the campaign ends, it’s clear from public opinion polling that the top issues for most Canadians have moved from cost-of-living related issues to Trump and tariffs. We expect this to be underlined further this week on April 2nd when Trump introduces widespread tariffs on trading partners around the world. The Conservatives seem to be making a risky bet that they can switch the ballot question back to the economy, affordability, and time for change.  We’ll see how the next few weeks play out!