Leaders Spar in Debates and Drop Platforms in Home Stretch Appeal to Voters

If this election had an equivalent to ‘Moving Day’ at the Masters, this past week was it. Both the English and French language leaders’ debates took place in Montreal, and major parties released their full policy platforms. Millions of Canadians headed to advance polls to cast their votes.  

On aggregate, polling numbers remain stable heading into the last week of the campaign:  

• LPC 43% 
• CPC 38% 
• NDP 9% 
• BQ 6%  
• GPC 2%  

Carney Survives Debates, No Knockout Punch Landed  

The French debate saw the leaders largely stick to their talking points, with no major highlight moments or a clear winner. Carney entered the French debate with many wondering how he would fare in la langue de Molière against more fluent opponents. He managed to weather the attacks from the other leaders on stage with no serious faux-pas while speaking passable French – which was all many felt he needed to do to have a successful night.  

Both debates were very much an extension of the campaigns with party leaders not deviating from their communication strategies, themes, and previous policy commitments.  

Given the Liberals’ lead in the polls, there was a continued focus on Carney. Carney’s private sector work at Brookfield Asset Management was a go-to line of attack for his opponents as they tried to imply that Carney would be compromised as prime minister.  

Focused on an affordability ballot question, Poilievre used the debates to outline his vision for the country with an emphasis on the cost of living, economic growth, and housing. He also worked to differentiate himself from Carney through his approaches to crime, addictions, and energy development.  

Singh and Blanchet were both on the offensive during the debates, attacking both Carney and Poilievre as they try to protect incumbent seats from LPC and/or CPC challengers. Singh and Blanchet framed themselves in the position of a broker, with both mentioning that unfettered power for a majority government is not ideal in providing positive outcomes and accountable governance to Canadians. 

Parties Release Policy Platforms 

All major parties have now released their full policy platforms. The Conservatives released their platform on April 22, following the Liberals, NDP, Bloc, and Greens.  

The Conservative platform, ‘Change’, focuses on fiscal responsibility, tackling the housing and affordability crises, unleashing the development of Canada’s natural resources, clamping down on crime, and re-investing in our armed forces. The CPC plan commits to deficit spending for the next four years, though at far lower levels than the proposed Liberal policy framework.  

The Liberal policy platform is titled ‘Canada Strong’. The document focuses on four core pillars: unite, secure, protect, and build. By and large, the document includes policy commitments focused on nation building. Large swaths of the policy pledges are related to reducing internal trade barriers, accelerating natural resource development, investing in our military, enabling investment and productivity, and improving the functioning of government. The cost of the new measures proposed in the Liberal platform totals nearly $130 billion over four years.   

While the Liberal platform may focus on nation building, the NDP platform is focused on building up Canadians, and particularly those in the middle-class or with lower incomes. Singh and his party’s promises emphasize new investment and measures relating to healthcare, the cost of groceries and essentials, affordable housing, lower taxes for working people, and building a green economy.  

It may come as no surprise that the Bloc’s platform is focused on Quebec and providing further choice and autonomy to the province and its people. Blanchet’s party has prioritized commitments to supporting workers impacted by tariffs, tackling the cost-of-living crisis, promotion of the French language and Quebec’s values, furthering feminism, investing in infrastructure, protecting the environment, and growing a clean economy.  

What to Look for in the Last Week of the Campaign 

The news cycle and social media spin may be kicked into overdrive in the last week of the campaign as the parties launch their final efforts to garner the support of Canadians. This election may come down to the following three things to watch:  

The resurgence of the BQ in Quebec 

In recent days, support for the Bloc has ever-so steadily increased. While this may not save the BQ from losing seats overall, a rise in their support can increase their expected seat count, but more importantly, reduce the number of seats that the Liberals or the Conservatives can win from them across the province. In this high-stake balancing act of often three-way split races in key areas of Quebec, the Liberals have more to lose if the Bloc gains more support coming into election night. At the time of writing, the Liberals could – at most – gain 13 seats in Quebec from the BQ alone.  

When in doubt, it’s about the 905 

With 122 of 343 ridings up for grabs, the path to forming government is always heavily reliant on success in Ontario. What was a blue wall in the 905 in December is now a red wave in most polls. The gap between the LPC and CPC varies from poll to poll, but almost universally they show a 8–15-point gulf between the parties, with the LPC up eight points according to 338Canada. The CPC need three things to occur to see success in Ontario, which may change their fortunes nationally.  

1. A rise in support for the NDP in Ontario, eroding vote splits in the 905 that may enable the CPC to pick up seats in the vote-rich region.
2. Better vote efficiency than the LPC, getting out the base and a more reliable voting block than softer LPC support obtained from NDP voters who say they may vote Liberal.
3. Executing a superior ground game, which, the CPC is noted for having, and they will need to execute throughout the 905 by pulling every vote to the polls to win seats in the region. 

British Columbia’s vote split bonanza 

B.C. is always well-known, particularly in the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island, for some serious vote splits in federal elections. In a couple of instances, there are four-way races on Vancouver Island, and many three-way races across the Lower Mainland. Here, the CPC stand with the most to gain from decreased Green and NDP support, while the Liberals are set to make small gains as well.  

If you wondered why Jagmeet Singh fought as hard as he did in the debates, B.C. is why. At the time of writing, according to 338Canada, the NDP stand to hold on to three seats in the province, having held thirteen at dissolution. Presently, Singh is set to lose his seat in Burnaby Central, polling behind the LPC and CPC in the riding.