Mark Carney Wins Liberal Leadership; Will Become Canada’s Next Prime Minister
Two months after Justin Trudeau announced his intention to resign as Prime Minister and Leader of the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC), party members selected Mark Carney as his successor.
The former central banker won a relatively uneventful and civilized leadership race by winning 85.9% of the vote on the first ballot.
Carney was followed by former Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland with 8% of the vote, former Government House Leader Karina Gould with 3.2% of the vote, and former Member of Parliament Frank Baylis with 3% of the vote.
The most interesting outcome is Chrystia Freeland, viewed as the main competition to Carney heading into the race given her record in progressively senior government cabinet roles, yet only being able to obtain less than 10% of the vote. The former Deputy Prime Minister ultimately found it difficult to differentiate herself from Trudeau’s mandate or secure enough heavyweight endorsements from Liberal colleagues.
Carney’s Path to Victory
Amid high economic uncertainty and U.S. tariff threats, Carney credibly positioned himself as an ‘outsider’ candidate with extensive economic and fiscal management credentials.
This leadership run is Carney’s first foray into elected politics, having served as the Governor of the Bank of Canada, Governor of the Bank of England, United Nations Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance, and as the Chair of Brookfield Asset Management.
Carney’s campaign sought to position him as a Prime Minister in waiting, attacking Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives while laying out a vision for the country that differentiated the new Liberal leader from his predecessor.
The new Liberal leader’s policy proposals have focused on:
- Reducing internal trade barriers, improving productivity, and growing the economy
- Addressing the housing crisis and cutting taxes for the middle class
- Balancing the budget
- Meeting NATO’s 2% spending target by 2030
- Removing the consumer carbon tax while still tackling climate change
During Carney’s acceptance speech, he immediately moved into territory traditionally owned by the Conservative Party, promising to scrap the consumer carbon tax and roll back the capital gains tax increase.
He promised to maintain Canadian tariffs on the United States “until their government shows us respect.” Also, taking a page out of the Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s playbook, Carney promised to direct all the proceeds raised from the tariffs back to Canadians. Carney also vowed to “build the strongest, fairest and freest country in the world.” This is language very similar to that of Conservative leader Poilievre’s.
That’s where the similarities end.
Carney spent much of his speech differentiating himself from the Conservative leader. Focusing on Poilievre as a life-long politician.
He directly attacked Poilievre’s ability to deal with Donald Trump. “A person who worships at the altar of Donald Trump will kneel to him, not stand up to him.” Carney also juxtaposed Canada’s politics of unity versus that of the United States, “let’s choose to be strong.”
Carney outlined a plan for Canada to move away from “business as usual.” This included language about having “one economy, not thirteen.” This leaves open a lot of questions regarding the role of the federal government versus provincial and territorial jurisdiction. Expect Carney to receive questions on what he means by this in the days and weeks ahead.
What’s Next?
Carney’s selection by Liberals as their next leader makes him “Prime Minister-designate.” With the LPC leadership process complete, expect the following in the coming days:
- Justin Trudeau’s formal resignation as Prime Minister of Canada
- The end of the Trudeau cabinet – by constitutional convention, the resignation of a Prime Minister brings about the resignation of the cabinet as a whole
- The swearing-in of Carney as the Prime Minister of Canada by the Governor General
- While Carney does not have a seat in the House of Commons, a Prime Minister does not need to be a Member of Parliament to serve in the role
- The appointment of the new Prime Minister’s cabinet – it remains to be seen if current Ministers would be re-appointed or if Carney will make changes
Potential Parliamentary/Election Scenarios
It is expected that a transition period will take a few days, and the decision of whether or not to move quickly to an election will affect how much Carney’s transition team can get done.
It is anticipated Prime Minister Trudeau will meet with the cabinet for the last time in short order, followed by a meeting of the national Liberal caucus. Shortly thereafter Trudeau will formally resign, allowing the new Prime Minister and cabinet to be sworn in.
The House of Commons is scheduled to return on March 24 for a new session of Parliament. If the House returns, the government will face a vote of confidence on March 26 on a financial measure (Supply Bill). The only way the government could survive this vote is through striking a deal with the NDP or Bloc Québécois. As such, Carney and his team will be doing the calculus on the new Prime Minister calling an election before reconvening in the House.
Potential scenarios include:
- The new Prime Minister asks for a dissolution of Parliament for a general election prior to the scheduled return of the House.
- This is currently the expected course of action for Carney given the recent Liberal resurgence in the polls
- Elections are required by law to be at least 37 days and no longer than 51 days, and they must occur on a Monday (unless the Monday is a statutory holiday)
- Potential election dates include Tuesday, April 22, Monday, April 28 or Monday, May 5
- Carney brings the House back as scheduled with a Speech from the Throne, and survives a confidence vote with the support of one of the opposition parties.
- While this would allow Carney to govern for a time, the atmosphere in the House would be difficult with the government needing to manage further votes of confidence in quick succession
- Carney brings the House back as scheduled with a Speech from the Throne but is defeated on a confidence vote
- This is seen as the least likely option as the government would certainly rather call an election on its own terms
Conservatives Already at Work to Define Carney
Since Justin Trudeau’s announcement, the 20-25% polling lead of the Conservative Party has been reduced significantly. With Trudeau’s departure, progressive voters have largely chosen the Liberal Party as their party of choice. The increase in Liberal support has also resulted in a drop in support for the New Democrats in English Canada and a noticeable decrease in support for the Bloc Quebecois in Quebec.
The tariff and sovereignty threats from the United States have focused the ballot question on who is best able to deal with the United States while positioning Canada for the future. This abrupt change in events has narrowed the horserace numbers for the Conservatives versus the Liberals to between three to twelve points, depending on the polls and demonstrating a lot of volatility in the electorate.
Conservatives have for some time, even prior to Justin Trudeau’s resignation, tried to define Carney as someone who was more interested in imposing complicated and expensive climate policies on Canadians rather than facing issues like cost of living, housing affordability, and inflation. In fact, the first recorded use in the House of Commons of the Conservative attack phrase “Carbon Tax Carney” dates back to April 2024.
Conservatives Intensifying Efforts, but also Recalibrating
Since Trudeau’s resignation, the Conservative attempts to define Carney have only intensified, coupled with the Tories’ significant war chest, where they raised $41 million dollars in 2024, compared to $15 million for the Liberals and $6 million for the NDP. Such a fundraising advantage gives the Conservatives much more ammunition in paid media advertising than their opponents.
As the Liberals rally around a new leader, along with the Trump threat, the Conservatives have had to adjust their core messaging. New ads focus on Carney’s trustworthiness, competency, and proximity to Trudeau and other Liberals.
The CPC aim to position Carney as a corporate and Liberal insider, out of touch with Canadians and with interests outside of the national interest that may influence his decision making.
Given the abandonment of the consumer carbon tax by the Liberals, the Conservatives have also had to shift away from their long-espoused messaging on a carbon tax election, increasingly wrapping themselves in a ‘Canada First’ narrative in response to U.S. tariffs and the mood of the country.
The effectiveness of this pivot remains to be seen, but Leger polling in the days after the CPC pivot showed the Conservatives halting the erosion of their lead over the Liberals, maintaining a 13-point lead.
With Carney now installed as Liberal leader, expect further waves of ads and messaging by the Conservatives to try and define him before he can define himself.