Election 2025: Canadians to vote among political and economic tumult

Fewer than 10 days after visiting Governor General Mary Simon to be sworn in as Prime Minister along with a new cabinet, Mark Carney headed back to Rideau Hall to ask for the dissolution of Parliament.

This sets out a 37-day campaign with election day on April 28, 2025.

With the House of Commons previously scheduled to return from prorogation on March 24, the opposition parties’ threats to take down the Liberals with a vote of non-confidence as soon as possible, Prime Minister Carney’s hand was forced to trigger an early election.

Much has changed since the House prorogued, however.

In recent weeks, there have been three consequential changes on the federal election scene:

• Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation,
• President Donald Trump’s inauguration and subsequent tariff threats, and
• substantial changes to public opinion polling.

With a substantial polling shift as the campaign begins, the Conservative Party of Canada and the Liberal Party of Canada are starting from an almost equal position (39 per cent for the Liberals and 37 per cent for the Conservative at the time of writing).

However, pollsters have warned there could be more shifts in public opinion during the campaign so what is said and done during this campaign will matter.

Liberal strategy shifts away from Trudeau policies to the centre

After ten years in government, there was a clear need for the Liberals to present a different value offering to Canadians.

During these uncertain economic times brought on by punishing tariffs proposed by our largest trading partner, Carney and his team have made a deliberate decision to move the Liberal party back to the political centre. Almost immediately upon taking office, the new Prime Minister cancelled the Trudeau-era consumer carbon tax and capital gains tax increase.

In the days leading up to the election call, Liberal communications intentionally focused on the message of “building one Canadian economy, that is ready for the opportunities of the future while bolstering our defence against the United States and its tariff threats today.”

During Carney’s first and only week in office before calling the election, he went to Paris to meet with the President of France Emmanuel Macron; to the United Kingdom to meet with Keir Starmer and King Charles, and up to Nunavut to meet with the Innuit and announce measures to support security and sovereignty.

He also held a meeting with Canada’s premiers and made commitments to removing interprovincial trade barriers, speed up regulatory processes on major projects, expand economic development, and deliver support for Canadians in the face of tariff threats.

In his speech after visiting the Governor General, Carney stated he would “build a new Canadian economy that works for everyone” and committed to a 1% tax cut for the middle class that he said would save $825/year for a family of four.

He also took aim at Pierre Poilievre, painting the CPC Leader as negative, divisive, and the “Canadian Trump” – comparing recent policy announcements from the Conservatives to actions taken by the Trump administration.

The string of recent Liberal policy commitments, which mirror those proposed by the Conservatives over the last two years, seem to have caught the CPC off-guard. But now the real race begins, and Carney must prove he is up to the challenge of a federal election campaign, can communicate in both official languages, and face the tough questions from journalists and the voting public.

Conservative strategy hinges on trust

The Conservative Party of Canada will centre its campaign on trust. Trust will underlie all aspects of the campaign, including the positioning of Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative Party of Canada leader, and through contrast ads and policy.

The message from the CPC: After ten years in office, can you afford to trust the Liberals to fix the problems they created by giving them a fourth mandate with largely the same slate of candidates?

On the policy front, Conservatives will continue to drive core messaging focused on economic growth, housing, affordability, and public safety. As they seek to form government, the Conservatives will continue to court the support of private sector union workers, youth, and others who feel the pinch of inflation and the rising cost of living.

Conservatives will also begin to place a heavier emphasis on one of their core four themes: “Stop the Crime.”  Public Safety continues to poll as a major issue in municipal environments across Canada. The Conservatives believe they have an advantage over the other parties in this area, and we can expect that an emphasis on crime will be differentiating factor.

NDP courts progressive voters to safeguard seats

With 24 incumbents and only three not seeking re-election, the work of NDP leader Jagmeet Singh is clear: hold as many current seats as possible and hope to expand to target ridings in British Columbia, the prairies, and Ontario.

For good (and bad), the federal New Democrats have the necessity, and luxury, of being able to focus their time and resources on far fewer seats than either the Conservatives or Liberals. Similar to the Ontario election, vote efficiency will matter greatly for the federal NDP.

Amid declining numbers in the polls, predictions of the NDP’s demise and loss of official party status might help galvanize traditional, if currently unmotivated voters. The perceived shift of Mark Carney’s Liberals to the centre also presents an opportunity for the NDP to position itself as the true voice of progressives in Canada.

Jagmeet Singh is entering the campaign determined to take most of the credit for the introduction of the dental coverage and pharmacare programs. It is, however, difficult to determine whether a significant number of people associate the existence of these programs with the NDP. Singh’s ability to tie these initiatives to the NDP will influence his party’s results greatly, especially among lower- and middle-income households.

The Bloc Stresses Collaboration, But Will Defend Québec’s Industries

The Bloc Québécois (BQ) begins the election at risk of losing seats. Recent polling demonstrates a shift in voting intentions to the Liberals at the expense of the BQ.

The Bloc will attempt to shore up its support by positioning itself as the only party able to defend the interests of Québec in Ottawa. Despite the rise of the Parti Québécois (PQ) provincially, the Bloc will be cautious to associate itself too closely with the PQ and the separatist cause despite the historical ties between the two parties.

Mr. Blanchet signalled that the BQ will focus on the dangers and opportunities facing Québec in several areas such as immigration, language and secularism, seniors, and the environment. Trade will also be top of mind as the BQ will want to defend Québec’s supply management, lumber, aluminum, and aeronautics industries amid the Trump tariffs.