Canada-U.S. Relations in the Second Trump Presidency: A Conversation with Bruce Fisher

Bruce Fisher, a veteran political consultant and expert on U.S. economic policy, discusses the future of Canada-U.S. relations under Donald Trump’s second presidency. From tariffs to political dynamics, Fisher provides an in-depth analysis of what’s to come and how Canada should prepare.

How do you see Canada-U.S. relations evolving under the second Trump presidency?

Doug Ford put it well when he described the situation in one word: chaos. We are in uncharted waters. The stable relationship we built through the integration of the U.S. and Canadian auto manufacturing sectors under NAFTA and its successor agreement is now facing serious uncertainty.

This uncertainty stems from an erosion of the relevance of international trade dispute resolution mechanisms under the World Trade Organization. Now, we have a U.S. President who, based on his personal reading of history—which no historian I know agrees with—believes tariffs are beneficial. This puts our relationship at significant risk.

So, in short, I see Canada-U.S. relations being abruptly and unexpectedly challenged, hopefully resilient, and ultimately dependent on events that are impossible to predict at this moment.

The Canadian government has been lobbying hard in the U.S., targeting members of Congress and highlighting the economic impact of tariffs on their districts. Do you think this approach will be effective in the current political climate?

The long answer is that this strategy means a lot of work ahead. In Washington, members of the President’s party have consistently supported his decisions, and the opposition has done what’s expected. But when it comes to economic issues, business interests are always heard—especially in the U.S. Senate, which fundamentally represents the country’s business leadership.

I don’t expect businesses will simply accept the impact of tariffs. Companies that rely on Canadian raw materials—such as uranium, which accounts for 27% of the uranium used by U.S. investor-owned utilities—are going to push back hard. The same goes for manufacturers who rely on Canadian steel, whether they make toasters or construct buildings. There are no immediate substitutes for these imports, and the short-term economic pain will be significant.

So, will Congress make a difference? It’s still early, but as soon as Trump’s tariffs take effect, representatives will hear from their constituents—loudly and persistently. The question is whether political pressures, including financial influences from figures like Elon Musk, will be enough to keep these policies in place.

If you were advising the Canadian government, would you say they’re on the right track with their current strategy? Is there more they should be doing?

I don’t presume to advise governments, but I do have three observations. First, it’s smart for premiers to be in Washington, meeting face-to-face with members of Congress and sharing specific data about how Canadian exports impact U.S. states and districts. Second, Canada’s trade representatives have done well engaging in key states like New York and Michigan, ensuring that local leaders understand the stakes.

However, political attention in those states has been focused elsewhere—Ontario has had a recent election, and New York is preoccupied with its budget. That will change quickly once the economic impact of these policies starts to hit home. It’s going to be a cold wake-up call for many U.S. decision-makers.

What role do businesses themselves play in all this? Are there actions they should be taking to highlight the risks they face?

There are many ways to approach a challenge like this. Sometimes you have to confront an obstacle directly; other times, you work around it. Businesses should be doing both.

Now is the time for companies to visit not only Washington but also state capitals. Business-to-business communication is crucial. Engaging with U.S. media outlets like The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Forbes, Businessweek, and Bloomberg should be a priority. The more Canada’s business leaders explain the integrated nature of our economies, the more pressure can be built against damaging policies.

The U.S. isn’t a dictatorship—it’s a system of competing voices, and Congress is constantly recalibrating based on economic realities. With midterm elections every two years, politicians will be listening to business interests closely.

Taking Trump out of the equation for a moment—what advice would you give to U.S. companies looking to expand into Canada?

I’ve been struck by the depth of Canada’s national identity. The sense of sovereignty and distinctiveness here is strong, and any attempt to challenge it—such as the idea of Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state—is met with immediate, unified resistance.

What American businesses need to recognize is that Canadians are deeply protective of their economic and cultural independence. While our economies are interconnected, Canada is not simply an extension of the U.S. This means that businesses looking to succeed in Canada need to approach the market with a deep understanding of its unique regulatory environment, economic priorities, and political sensitivities.

That said, there is immense goodwill toward Canada in many parts of the U.S., particularly along the border. States like New York, Michigan, and Washington have strong economic and cultural ties with Canada. These regions overwhelmingly voted against Trump and support a rules-based international order. Businesses in these states understand the value of cross-border trade and collaboration, and they represent a significant base of support for maintaining strong economic ties.

Given all these factors, what’s your final takeaway on Canada-U.S. relations moving forward?

The relationship has deep roots, and despite the turbulence of the moment, it has the potential to endure. The key now is for leaders—both political and business—to stay engaged, keep the dialogue open, and reinforce the benefits of our longstanding partnership. If Canada and the U.S. can navigate this period strategically, they can emerge with a trade relationship that is stronger and more resilient than ever.

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