The Calm After the Tariff Storm
With polling showing a consistent lead for Ford and the PCs, it doesn’t appear the past week has changed the overall outlook for the election.
However, some polls are showing the Liberals gaining at the expense of the NDP and edging ahead in the “progressive primary.” If this trend holds until election day it could shift a few seats between the NDP and Liberals but would not change who forms the next government.
Latest tracking polls: the February 10 Ontario Nightly Tracking by Nanos Research had the Ontario PCs leading by 13 points. 44 per cent of voters selected the PCs, 31 per cent the Liberal, 19 per cent the NDP and 4 per cent the Green Party.
Ford and PCs Looking to Remain in the Driver Seat
After the federal announcement of a thirty-day reprieve from tariffs, Premier Ford made a quick pivot to focus on transportation in week two of the campaign trail. In attempt to keep the PCs in the spotlight, Ford made a commitment to $15B in new infrastructure investment for transportation projects and GO 2.0, which would deliver multiple new GO lines and transform GTA transportation options.
In addition to shiny new infrastructure announcements, Ford continues to gain major endorsements from unions on the campaign trail.
While mid-week the focus shifted off tariffs, Ford continued to make rounds on U.S. television urging cooperation and collaboration between the U.S. and Canada. With recent news of a 25% tariff on all U.S. imports of steel and aluminium, and Trump reiterating his “51st State” views, Ford doubled down on the need for a new mandate to outlast the Trump administration. Ford is expected to continue to push the “Protect Ontario” agenda, whether it is to protect Ontarians’ wallets, communities, borders or the economy.
Ontario Liberals Are Trying to Break the Trajectory
Ontario Liberals have been trying to focus their messaging to break through a media cycle dominated by Trump and tariffs.
The OLP is promising voters “More For You”, which the party says can be delivered by refocusing priorities away from what they claim are bad provincial deals such as paying out The Beer Store $1.4 billion to expand alcohol sales, the $8.28 billion greenbelt land swap deal, or calling a $150 million early election. To get this message to Ontarians, the Ontario Liberal Party has even bought coveted ad space on Canadian broadcasts of Super Bowl LIX.
Healthcare has been anchoring the More For You campaign messaging for the Liberals. Crombie has been campaigning against the PCs on what she claims has been a “massive under-investment” in the sector.
Crombie’s Liberals will need to continue to focus their campaign messaging on healthcare and remain disciplined in attacking the PCs on the topic whenever possible. In a political environment where the entire country is pulling together under the “Team Canada” banner, the healthcare issue is one of the few wedges where Crombie gets on the radar when facing a tuned-out electorate.
ONDP Releases Flagship Ad, Responds to Tariff Threat
The Ontario NDP (ONDP) also released their flagship ad last week, targeting the PCs on housing, affordability, healthcare, and education. However, their message is being overshadowed by the looming US-Canada trade war, Trump musings annexing Canada and Ford’s active response.
With the bellicose US president dominating public concern, the ONDP has struggled to convince voters they can protect Ontario’s future. To stand out, they announced new affordability measures, including a Monthly Grocery Rebate they believe will help families cope with rising food costs. The NDP also touted a plan to “stop price gouging” by forcing grocery chains to disclose large price hikes and enact measures they claim will help with price-fixing.
Meanwhile, Stiles has aligned the ONDP’s trade stance closely with other parties on supporting job protections, interprovincial cooperation and federal efforts. Without a distinct approach, the ONDP will need to prove they are best equipped to handle the serious economic threats facing the province.
Doug in D.C., Debates at Home
Doug Ford will be travelling to Washington D.C. with the other Canadian Premiers on February 12th as part of the Council of the Federation’s efforts to prevent tariffs, directly appealing to US lawmakers on the value of economic partnership.
While other parties have cried foul that this is an unfair campaign advantage, the fact remains that the Premier will get to stand on the big stage in full view of the media.
The other major campaign events in the week ahead are two scheduled debates – a Northern Ontario Debate (February 14) and the main Leaders Debate (February 17). These might be the last high-impact opportunities for opposition leaders to shake things up prior to Election Day.