Ford’s Election Gamble Pays Off: Secures Historic Third Majority

PC Party leader Doug Ford has joined the company of only four former Premiers, Sir Oliver Mowat (1872-1896), Sir James Witney (1905-1914), George Howard Ferguson (1923-1930), and Leslie Frost (1941-1961), by winning three consecutive majority election victories.  

Ontario’s next legislature will feature a PC government with about 82 seats, 25 NDP seats, 14 Liberals, two Green Party MPPs, and one independent. Several races remain close at the time of writing; however, none will make a material difference in the results. 

The PC campaign’s choice to frame this early election call as a choice on who is the right leader to protect Ontario proved to be an effective strategy. President Trump’s threats of hitting Canadian exports to the US with tariffs were peppered throughout the campaign and served to give the PC campaign to keep its narrative dominant. Superior campaign resources further enhanced this advantage, meaning the outcome never really appeared in doubt.  

Marit Stiles and the NDP retained their status as Official Opposition outpacing the Liberals with their focus on affordability for families. 

Meanwhile Bonnie Crombie and the Liberal party attempted to use a healthcare narrative to break-through to voters but had what now seems like an impossible challenge. In the end, while Crombie failed to win her seat, the Liberals managed to secure official party status, and Crombie has announced she will be staying on as party leader.  

While the PC’s won a majority, voter turnout was low, with some frustrated with the decision of an early election. Numbers show that Ontarians stuck to what they are familiar with, which may also be attributed to low name recognition of the NDP leader and a weak Liberal Party. 

What’s next for Premier Ford 3.0 

Armed with a new majority, the Ford government is expected get back to the business of governing quickly – particularly with the threats from the United States looming large over the Ontario economy.  

Ford’s plan released prior to the election did not hold back on investments related to protecting the economy, its workers, and ensuring Ontario remains competitive on a national and global level.  

Observers expect Ford to move quickly to plan a budget, put in place economic supports promised during the campaign to support workers and businesses should US tariffs push Ontario into recession, and look at tackling new policy initiatives that can spur economic growth, including working with other provinces to eliminate internal trade barriers.  

While fiscal balance for the province is not the top issue, it will be important to watch how the provincial government balances their commitment to Protect Ontario, while addressing affordability and healthcare concerns of Ontarians.  

Liberals land in third place; leader fails to win seat 

Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals spent most of the campaign coalescing their messaging around two key themes: healthcare and attempting to colour government agreements as “bad deals for Ontarians.”  

By sticking to these two themes, the Ontario Liberal Party (OLP) tried to brand Crombie, who has been leader for just over a year, as someone who will put their interests first. The PCs have been referring to Crombie as the “Queen of the Carbon Tax” since she was voted leader. 

The Ontario Liberals also executed a mid-campaign shift in strategy to put an emphasis on Toronto ridings, challenging incumbent NDP members for their seats. Crombie spent a considerable amount of time in the latter half of the campaign visiting downtown and central 416 ridings and candidates.  

When Crombie was first running for OLP leader in 2024, she initially pitched herself as a centre-right leader who would course-correct from the OLP’s centre-left Wynne administration of 2014-2018. This was a clear play to win support in the vote-rich 905 suburbs, which has overwhelmingly voted PC since 2018.  

Considering the OLP’s mid-campaign shift to focus on stealing seats from the NDP in Toronto, and their lackluster showing in the 905, this strategy did not result in the suburban breakthrough initially anticipated by the OLP.  

NDP unable to gain ground; maintains status as Official Opposition 

Marit Stiles’ first ONDP campaign as leader was focused on the affordability crisis and selling Ontarians on programs that would keep money in their pockets, including a grocery tax rebate program, expanding rent control, and cheaper public transit.  

The campaign also needed to increase Marit’s profile across the province where, despite being well-liked, she is a bit of an unknown to most voters. 

The policy announcements spoke to popular issues, but the inability of the NDP to turn the conversation away from the existential threat posed by the United States meant that the campaign could never differentiate itself in a meaningful way from the headline grabbing PCs, and similar-looking campaigns from the Greens and Liberals. 

Notably, with the NDP coming away with less of the popular vote and fewer seats than at dissolution, while the Liberal party increased both, Ontario saw an unexpected shift to the right after two consecutive PC majority governments, making the NDP’s task to break through with a new leader in a short timeline a hurdle the ONDP could not clear. 

Because there is no clear-cut winner of the “progressive primary,” we should expect the opposition parties to remain split for the years ahead – a comfortable position for Ford and the PCs.