Double Trouble: Party Leaders Face Off in Two Family Day Weekend Debates as Campaign Enters Final Stretch

Debates bookended the Family Day long weekend. North Bay’s Canadore College played host to the first leaders’ debate on Valentine’s Day. There was no lost love between the four leaders who got to face off for the first time this election during a Northern-focused debate. 

The Northern Debate focused less specifically on Northern Ontario issues than in past elections, attaching a Northern Ontario spin on the major issues of the campaign: cost of living, healthcare, housing – and the Premier sticking to his key message on the tariff threat from Donald Trump.  

Party leaders reconvened on Family Day Monday for a final showdown, focusing mainly on those same issues. While the main leaders’ debate often devolved into all four candidates speaking over each other, it did provide opportunities for each to clearly express their key ballot question and messages to voters. 

There were no clear knockout punches guaranteed to shift campaign momentum, which will certainly give Ford and his team some comfort.  

However, between those watching live and the media coverage afterwards, it did give his opponents struggling to break through with a tuned-out electorate their biggest opportunity to otherwise break out of the trajectory the campaign had been on.  

Opposition leaders won’t have much time to catch up to Ford’s commanding lead, with just over a week left before Election Day and Ford still projected to be re-elected to a comfortable third majority. 

Ford Plays Defence  

The party leaders duked it out over two debates, with the Liberals, NDP and Green going after Ford’s record over the last seven years.  

Even in a three-versus-one, Ford stayed level-headed and consistent with his key messages during the debate, focusing in on the economy. As other party leaders focused in on affordability and healthcare during the debates, Doug Ford found himself having to play defence on his decision to call an early election. 

It was not lost on media that Ford skipped out on both post-debate media questions and answers, most likely not wanting to answer questions on anything unrelated to Protecting Ontario. This indicates that over the next week, we can expect to see Ford stick to his key messages of working hard for Ontarians, fighting against the threat of tariffs, and protecting the economy.  

Having a significant lead in fundraising, over the last three weeks the PC Party has not held back on advertising. They will likely continue with their push on paid advertising, promoting the leader while attacking the Liberals, and avoiding discussing healthcare and housing.  

Crombie Tries to Position Herself as Only Alternative to Ford  

Bonnie Crombie approached Monday’s debates with a compare and contrast strategy, highlighting Doug Ford’s record, and providing examples of how an Liberal government would do better. She stuck with themes that the party believes will resonate with voters, headlined by healthcare and including “bad deals” that she says the PC government has made to put “insider interests” over that of voters.  

One of Crombie’s challenges for the debates was to build name recognition, as she has only been leader of the OLP for slightly over a year. Her performance during the debates seemed to spark the interest of viewers, with Crombie’s name being the most searched for on Google during the debate, compared to the PC, NDP, and Green leaders.  

The OLP is facing an uphill battle with PC support remaining strong Province-wide. The party will likely continue to focus its messaging on healthcare and so-called “bad deals” in PC ridings it thinks it can win, including Mississauga East – Cooksville where Crombie is running. In NDP-held ridings in Toronto that could swing Liberal, expect the OLP to position itself as the only anti-Ford option, including in Toronto – St. Paul’s. 

With ONDP Support Plateauing, Stiles Sticking on Message for Now 

With recent polls showing the ONDP support plateauing, and possibly bleeding some support to the Liberals, their projected seat count remains above that of the Liberals with an efficient distribution of that vote share. However, continuing this trend will not be enough for the ONDP who were hoping for greater positive response to Stiles’ contention that things have never been worse than the last seven years under Doug Ford. 

Stiles’ team has continued to push a strategy focusing on the ongoing housing affordability and cost of living crises many Ontarians feel. During the debates, Marit Stiles also attacked Doug Ford on education, trying to appeal to voters with school-aged kids.  

However, the continued framing of campaign on the response to Donald Trump has led to a rise in national pride and greater acceptance of higher costs of living as Canadians en masse are embracing a Buy Canadian/anti-American approach with their wallets. Understanding this, the ONDP is offering a monthly grocery rebate, hoping to convince voters on their understanding of the issues faced by families across the province. 

Coming out of the debates, the Stiles campaign hosted a rally in the West End of Toronto on February 18 looking to solidify their core MPPs in Toronto, including the threatened incumbent seats in Toronto Centre, University-Rosedale, and Toronto-St. Paul’s which are seeing a surprising bleed in support to the Liberals. The ONDP has released limited attacks on the Liberals, but we may see this frequency increase If the polls do not shift. 

The Final Stretch 

There appears to be a polling consensus that the Liberals are pulling ahead in the “progressive primary” and gaining a few points in the polls. Crombie used her closing statement in the debate to appeal directly to past NDP voters. At this point, the movement in the polls is certainly not enough to change the overall outcome of the election with Ford still in the driver’s seat.  

Overall debates appeared to be a wash, with leaders getting out their talking points but no knockout punches or major gaffes apparent on the surface. Crombie dominating the Google search rankings is perhaps a promising sign, though not something that is likely to make the PC camp nervous just yet heading into the final week of the campaign.