New Brunswick Election 2024: History Made in the Maritimes

New Brunswick is accustomed to electoral surprises and volatility, but a red tidal wave swept across the province as Susan Holt and the Liberal Party of New Brunswick won a majority government, their first election win in a decade. 

The NB Liberals won 31 seats across the province, with the Progressive Conservatives holding onto 16 seats, and the Green Party securing 2 seats in the legislature. The 2024 election saw a 66% turnout rate, with the Liberals receiving 48% of the vote to the PCs’ 35%, and the Greens’ 14%.  

How did Holt win?  

In 2020, Blaine Higgs and the PCs won 27 seats, with the Liberals holding onto 17, the Greens winning 3, and the People’s Alliance winning 2. For months, polls had the Liberals and PCs neck and neck in the province, with the potential of an extremely tight election result. So, what happened?  

In the last two weeks, the polls began to swing in favour of Holt and the Liberals. Traditionally, New Brunswick’s electoral districts typically divide into three distinct regions: rural anglophone areas, where the PCs often hold strong; francophone regions of the province, mostly in the north where the Liberals tend to thrive; and the urban and suburban areas of Moncton, Fredericton, and Saint John. This third segment is often the bellwether determining which party will come out on top. 

The Liberal vote grew 27% in Saint John, 23% in Fredericton, and 16% in Moncton. The Liberals won almost all of the seats in the usual PC heartland of the Saint John region, including safe seats like Premier Higgs’ riding of Quispamsis, Rothesay, and Fundy-Hampton-St. Martins. Ridings that no commentator thought could go Liberal flipped for the first time in decades, turning this into a red wave.  

History made 

On October 21st, 2024, Susan Holt became the first female premier in New Brunswick’s history. The election also saw a record number of women elected, with 17 women winning their seats across the province. This comes during women’s history month in Canada, and almost 57 years to the day since the first female MLA was elected in New Brunswick.  

Higgs did not immediately resign as leader. In speaking to the media, he said it was “extremely unlikely” that he would remain as leader but would consult with caucus and the party president before determining next steps. Many PC ministers lost their seats, and the Party will take time to recover and reorganize following this heavy defeat. 

What changed? 

Going into election 2024, the main issues were clear for both main parties: improving access to primary healthcare, addressing the rising cost of living, improving housing supply, and the debate over inclusive education.  

The approaches, however, were very different. Higgs’ main campaign promise was a 2% cut to the HST, while emphasizing the PCs’ strong record of fiscal management. Susan Holt’s Liberals, meanwhile, made over 100 campaign promises estimated at over $100 billion, with announcements daily throughout the campaign. In the end, it seems that the PCs running on their record was not enough, as Holt’s campaign commitments and clear message of change won over voters in crucial regions, putting her party on top.  

Distance from the Liberal brand 

While many Liberals across Canada will celebrate Susan Holt and the NB Liberals’ victory, the Party has distinctly distanced itself from the Liberal brand. The NB Liberals largely named themselves ‘Team Holt’ during the campaign, the Party remains against the federal carbon tax, and Susan Holt has avoided links to Justin Trudeau throughout the campaign, despite the PCs’ best efforts. This, combined with the natural headwinds of a two-term government, likely cushioned the impact of the federal Liberal brand and its current unpopularity for Susan Holt and her team.  

Despite this, the Trudeau Liberals in Ottawa are already looking to turn this into positive momentum for themselves. We should expect to see the relationship between New Brunswick and the Government of Canada improve, at least until the next federal election. 

What to expect from a Holt Government 

Most of Holt’s commitments are focused on healthcare, housing, and affordability. Holt recommitted these priorities in her victory speech, whilst promising that her government would be fiscally responsible. How Holt threads the needle on making headway on her campaign promises while keeping the province’s finances in order will be the main challenge for her term.  

Two of the main priorities in the coming weeks for the Holt government will be focused on affordability and housing. In an interview with CBC on Tuesday, Holt said the government’s first actions will include removing the provincial tax on power bills and implementing a cap on rent increases. In the long-term, Holt’s commitment to open at least 30 new collaborative healthcare clinics in the first three years of their government – similar to Wab Kinew’s commitments in Manitoba – will be a significant measuring stick for the 180,000 New Brunswickers without access to primary care.  

While many will celebrate Susan Holt and the NB Liberal’s victory in the coming days, the new government has many challenges ahead. Homelessness and addictions, a strained utility and electricity grid, resetting the relationship with Indigenous Peoples, and amending Policy 713 all loom in the background as early tests of the Holt government. Policy 713 was amended by the PCs in the Spring of 2023 to ensure educators asked for parental consent prior to addressing a student by a different name or pronoun before the age of 16 – which critics say violates the Charter rights of youth. At the time, the issue resulted in court challenges, several resignations from Higgs’ cabinet, and national media scrutiny. During the campaign, Holt committed to reversing these changes, and to implementing the recommendations of a report drafted by the Seniors, Child, and Youth Advocate in amending the education policy.  

Cabinet watch 

As Premier-designate Holt and her team work to put together a cabinet in the coming weeks, here are some high-profile MLAs we’re watching closely as they build their cabinet:  

• René Legacy (Bathurst) – A Liberal MLA since 2020, Legacy worked for 25 years in the financial sector, including as an executive with UNI Coopération financière.  

• Robert Gauvin (Shediac Bay-Dieppe) – Former Deputy Premier to Blaine Higgs who ran for the Liberals in 2020 and finished third in the 2022 Liberal leadership race.  

• Dr. John Dornan (Saint John Portland-Simonds) – Former CEO of Horizon Health, fired by Blaine Higgs, who is widely expected to become Minister of Health.  

• David Hickey (Saint John Harbour) – A city councillor in Saint John, who won the riding formerly held by a PC minister that has a history of tight results, winning by nearly 2000 votes.  

• Pat Finnigan (Kent North) – A former Liberal MP, who won his riding defeating an incumbent Green Party MLA.  

• John Herron (Hampton – Fundy – St. Martins) – A former Progressive Conservative and Liberal MP, who defeated a controversial PC candidate in this long-time PC stronghold riding.