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2011 vs. 2015 Federal Election, where did all those votes come from?

StrategyCorp analyzed the 2011 and 2015 raw electoral data to determine how provincial voting turnout and patterns changed between the  41st and 42nd federal elections.

Summary:

  • In 2015, Ontario saw a million more voters turn up at the polls than in 2011
  • In 2015, Quebec, British Columbia and Alberta all had approximately 500,000 more voters than in the previous federal election
  • Ontario and Nova Scotia are the only regions that saw an increase in Liberal votes with a simultaneous decrease in Conservative Party, NDP and Green Party votes

The Liberal Party’s meteoric rise to majority power in 2015 came with an almost 150 per cent increase in votes compared to 2011. The Green Party also posted gains, with a 6 per cent increase. Conversely, Conservative votes dipped 4 per cent while voter support for the NDP fell almost 25 per cent.

Vote Change by PartyVotes by Party

The 42nd federal election also saw increased voter turnout across the country over the 41st federal election. Nunavut turnout increased over 50 per cent while Alberta increased by close to 40 per cent.  Even the lowest increases, in Quebec and Prince Edward Island, saw voter turnout increase by more than 10 per cent. Overall voter turnout in Canada increased by 19 per cent.

Voter Turnout Increase by Region

Voter Turnout Increase by Region

Region%
Nunavut51%
Alberta38%
British Columbia26%
Yukon24%
Manitoba22%
Northwest Territories22%
Saskatchewan21%
Canada19%
Ontario18%
Newfoundland & Labrador18%
Nova Scotia16%
New Brunswick14%
Quebec11%
Prince Edward Island 11%

Against recent historical trends, the Liberal Party showed incredible gains in Western Canada, long a bastion of Conservative seats. Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia and the Northwest Territories posted over a 200% increase in Liberal votes in the 2015 election vs. the 2011 election.

Liberal Voter Turnout Increase by Region Breakdown

Voter Turnout Liberal_v2

Region%
Alberta266%
Saskatchewan240%
British Columbia229%
Manitoba229%
Northwest Territories219%
Quebec181%
New Brunswick160%
Canada149%
Nunavut149%
Nova Scotia148%
Ontario109%
Yukon103%
Newfoundland & Labrador101%
Prince Edward Island58%

Below is an analysis of total voter turnout increase by region as a percentage of Canada’s voter turnout increase. The chart is in line with a nationwide increase in voters and differences in the percentages can largely be attributed to the differences in population figures. Nonetheless, the chart provides valuable information when compared with the total Liberal vote increase by region as a percentage of Canada’s Liberal vote increase.

Comparing the Increase in Voter Turnout with the Increase in Liberal votes

Comparison_StrategyCorp

 

Large Volume Liberal Vote Increases took place in Quebec, Ontario, British Columbia and Alberta (300,000+)

  • Quebec counted for almost a quarter of the Liberal vote increase
    • Can be largely attributed to a significant NDP decline in the province by over half a million votes since the last election, plus a surge in first time voters
  • The increase in Liberal votes in Ontario can be attributed to new votes and a decline in support for other parties
  • British Columbia’s surge in new voters since the 2011 election mixed with declining support for the Conservative Party complimented the Green Party and Liberal Party
  • Alberta’s rise in new voters and decline in other party support since the last election is largely split between Liberal and Conservative Support (65/40)

Total Votes per Province Broken Down by Region

RegionVoters
2015
Voters
2015
Change
# of Voters
Change
# of Voters
Canada 14,723,980 17,559,353 2,835,373 19%
Liberal Party2,783,0766,930,1364,147,060149%
Conservative Party5,835,2705,600,496-234,774-4%
New Democratic Party4,512,4113,461,262-1,051,149-23%
Green Party572,095605,86433,7696%
Other1,021,128961,595-59,533-6%
Alberta1,395,8851,929,197533,31238%
Liberal Party129,310473,661344,351 266%
Conservative Party932,7651,148,649215,88423%
New Democratic Party234,730 224,198 -10,532-4%
Green Party73,05848,908-24,150-33%
Other6087,7247,1161170%
New Brunswick 388,738442,51953,78114%
Liberal Party87,871228,425140,554160%
Conservative Party170,420112,035-58,385-34%
New Democratic Party115,83081,173-34,657-30%
Green Party12,31720,5908,27367%
Other2,300296-2,004-87%
Nova Scotia451,350523,17971,82916%
Liberal Party130,577323,853193,276148%
Conservative Party165,81893,584-72,234-44%
New Democratic Party136,62085,952-50,668-37%
Green Party17,80817,751-570%
Other5272,0391,512287%
Northwest Territories 15,57718,9613,38422%
Liberal Party2,8729,1666,294219%
Conservative Party5,0013,415-1,586-32%
New Democratic Party7,1405,845-1,295-18%
Green Party4775355812%
Other870-87-100%
Prince Edward Island79,04587,4688,42311%
Liberal Party32,38051,00218,62258%
Conservative Party32,54816,900-15,648-48%
New Democratic Party12,13514,0061,871 15%
Green Party1,8955,2653,370178%
Other87295208239%
Saskatchewen455,094551,91496,82021%
Liberal Party38,743131,82193,078240%
Conservative Party256,167267,91111,7445%
New Democratic Party147,214138,472-8,742-6%
Green Party12,04511,530-515-4%
Other9252,1801,255136%
British Columbia1,872,6362,350,701478,06526%
Liberal Party251,263826,372575,109229%
Conservative Party853,272704,197-149,075-17%
New Democratic Party609,102609,8107080%
Green Party143,769193,18249,41334%
Other15,23017,1401,91013%
Manitoba491,219601,024109,80522%
Liberal Party81,417267,768186,351229%
Conservative Party262,941224,205-38,736-15%
New Democratic Party126,63983,098-43,541-34%
Green Party17,73819,1391,4018%
Other2,4846,8144,330174%
Nunavut7,87511,9104,03551%
Liberal Party2,2605,6183,358149%
Conservative Party3,9302,956-974-25%
New Democratic Party1,5253,1531,628107%
Green Party1601832314%
Other000-
Ontario5,531,4786,532,7141,001,23618%
Liberal Party1,400,3022,923,7911,523,489109%
Conservative Party2,457,4632,287,179-170,284-7%
New Democratic Party1,417,4351,084,555-332,880-23%
Green Party207,435189,373-18,062-9%
Other48,84347,816-1,027-2%
Quebec3,801,6904,233,693432,00311%
Liberal Party538,447 1,512,676974,229181%
Conservative Party627,961708,22580,26413%
New Democratic Party1,630,8651,073,212-557,653-34%
Green Party80,40296,070 15,66819%
Other924,015843,510-80,505-9%
Yukon16,05719,9823,92524%
Liberal Party5,29010,7155,425103%
Conservative Party5,4224,800-622-11%
New Democratic Party2,3083,8901,58269%
Green Party3,037577-2,460-81%

 

Written by Tyler Anderson, an Associate at StrategyCorp Inc.

December 3rd, 2015

 

All data found from 2011 and 2015 was retrieved from Elections Canada.

“New votes” could be referring to the changes between the 2011 and 2015 Federal elections. This does not necessarily mean new voters, but also could be people who did not vote in the past election.

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