Canadians continued to be on the move in 2023/2024
Amid record-high population growth, immigration emerged as an important policy debate last year. 2024 saw the federal government announce the reduction of both temporary and permanent immigration. The economic impacts of these changes will be complex as they are expected to reduce demand for housing (particularly on the rental side) and healthcare resources. However, lower immigration will also reduce labour supply. Some sectors like tourism could be particularly hit hard.
With international immigration decreasing, the ability of local communities to attract and retain residents from other towns and provinces will take heightened importance.
New data from Statistics Canada shows that most census metropolitan areas (CMA) across Canada face an uphill battle as they lost workers and families to other provinces on a net basis between July 1, 2023, and June 30, 2024 (‘2023/2024′). Nearly two thirds of Canadian CMAs recorded net interprovincial migration deficits in 2023/2024.
The Biggest Losers
Revised data shows that Montreal recorded the largest interprovincial migration deficit in 2022/2023, losing 11,960 residents to other provinces on a net basis. Toronto came in second, losing 10,240 individuals on a net basis.
Montreal saw a notable reversal of trend in 2023/2024 with its net deficit shrinking to 6,667, a swing of more than 5,000.
Toronto did not experience the same magnitude of change. With a deficit of 9,819, Toronto recorded the largest deficit among Canadian CMAs in 2023/2024.
Calgary, Vancouver and Edmonton have been Torontonians’ top destinations when they leave the province.
Ontario CMAs Continue to Lose Residents to Other Provinces
14 of the 16 CMAs in Ontario recorded net interprovincial migration deficits for at least the fourth consecutive year in 2023/2024. Beyond Toronto, two CMAs west of Union Station had the largest deficits: Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo (-1,908) and Hamilton (-1,662).
After Statistics Canada revised the data, Ottawa emerged as an outlier in the province. Ottawa bucked the trend as the only Ontario CMA gaining residents from other provinces on a net basis (+1,818 in 2023/2024).
Last year’s surplus in Ottawa was lower than levels recorded before the pandemic, which ranged from +3,436 to +5,025 between 2015/2016 and 2019/2020. Nonetheless, Ottawa is riding an impressive 18-year streak of positive net interprovincial migration
Interprovincial Migration Swings on the Coasts
Over 95,000 Canadians moved to Atlantic Canada in 2021 and 2022. The exodus to the East Coast has since tapered off. In 2023/2024, all Atlantic Canada CMAs saw net interprovincial migration decline compared to the year before.
This swing was particularly acute in Halifax, which went from a large surplus in 2022/2023 (+2,342) to a deficit the following year (-246).
Moncton also went from a net surplus (+587) to a net deficit (-305) during this period.
Except for Chilliwack, all British Columbia CMAs experienced a similar dynamic with net interprovincial migration contracting. The largest trend swing occurred in Vancouver where a 1,230 net surplus in 2022/2023 turned into a 5,709 deficit in 2023/2024.
Alberta is Still Calling
Similar to 2022/2023, Alberta was again the top destination for individuals moving provinces in 2023/2024. Calgary recorded a net interprovincial migration surplus of more than 20,000 for the second year in a row. This was the highest surplus among all Canadian CMAs last year.
Based on the latest data available, 8,820 Torontonians moved to Calgary in 2022/2023
After recording deficits between 2015/2016 and 2021/2022, Edmonton continued to turn its interprovincial migration fortune around in 2023/2024 with a net surplus of 13,893.
Where Are Interprovincial Migration Trends Going?
Interprovincial migration declined in 2023/2024 compared to the high levels recorded in 2021/2022 and 2022/2023. Data for the first three months of 2024/2025 (Q3, 2024) indicates that interprovincial migration could further decrease as most provinces recorded lower interprovincial in-migrant and out-migrant numbers compared to Q3, 2019.
Economic uncertainty, lower employment growth and the return to in-person work are key drivers slowing interprovincial migration
While not to the same magnitude as in 2021-2023, the number of in-migrants moving to Alberta remains well above pre-pandemic levels. On the flip side, Ontario continues to struggle to attract residents from other provinces while more Ontarians are leaving compared to before the pandemic. In this regard, Toronto and other Ontario CMAs are likely to still see net interprovincial migration deficits in 2024/2025, albeit smaller. They will probably continue to answer Alberta’s call.
Sebastien Labrecque is the Chief Economist and Executive Director of StrategyCorp’s Institute of Public Policy and Economy.