Trudeau Resigns – What Now?

Political Reaction as of 3:30 PM EST (2025/01/06) 

• President-Elect Donald Trump: Suggested on Truth Social that Canadians love being the 51st State, and that Trudeau resigned because he knew the U.S. would no longer allow for trade deficits and subsidies to Canada that it “needs to stay afloat”.  

• Pierre Poilievre: In a video posted to X, Conservative Party leader Poilievre made the argument that all Liberal politicians are complicit in supporting Trudeau’s policies and record, and that a carbon tax election is needed now to stabilize the country.  

• Jagmeet Singh: In his video response, NDP leader Singh also linked all Liberal MPs to Trudeau’s record. He committed to voting against the government in a confidence vote, regardless of who leads the Liberal Party.  

• Yves-François Blanchet: The Bloc Québécois leader made clear that any successor to Trudeau ought to call an election at the earliest opportunity, and that all contenders for the Liberal leadership are complicit in the Trudeau government’s record to date.  

Trudeau Announces Resignation

Prime Minister Trudeau resigned as the leader of the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) but will remain as Prime Minister until a new leader is selected. Trudeau stated he cannot fight the next election while “fighting internal battles.”

He has asked the LPC President to initiate a process to choose the next Liberal leader, who will then become Prime Minister.

Trudeau also announced that his request for prorogation until March 24, 2025, was granted by the Governor General.

Prorogation means that the House of Commons will not return until March 24, 2025.  As a result, the government cannot be voted down in a non-confidence motion until the House resumes sitting.

If a non-confidence vote is held the week of March 24, the earliest election date will be May 5, 2025.

There are many questions that remain unanswered, and there will be intense pressure on the President of the Liberal Party of Canada and its executive to fully answer these questions.

Is it maintaining the position that people can become members of the Liberal Party of Canada for free?

Do cabinet ministers that choose to run for office remain in cabinet or will a new shuffle be required?

Who will run for Liberal leader? The potential field includes former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney, former British Columbia Premier Christy Clark, Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne, Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly, Transport Minister Anita Anand, Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, and former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland.

The Path to Selecting a New Leader

How will a new leader be selected?

Liberal MPs will participate in a special briefing on the Liberal Party Constitution and the role of caucus in this process on January 6, 2025.

It is important to note that, unless the rules are changed, this will be the first Liberal Leadership race that includes the “registered Liberal” member category. Becoming a “registered Liberal” is free, whereas in the last leadership race each membership cost $10.

Combined with the possibility of online voting, this could significantly increase the ranks of eligible voters far beyond the norm in Canadian political leadership races.

Critics say the current Liberal leadership process leaves it open to electoral interference or a takeover by a foreign or domestic special interest group.

These questions will all need to be addressed by LPC leadership before the leadership contest starts.

According to the Liberal Party of Canada’s constitution, if the leader announces their resignation, a meeting of the National Board of Directors must be called within 27 days. At the meeting, party officials will set a date for a leadership vote as well as other parameters around the race. Questions include:

• The deposit amount a leadership candidate must pay to enter the process, which could be a significant barrier in a shortened race.
• If the leadership voting will likely be online, by mail, or at physical ballot boxes.

The National Board of Directors appears to lack the power to amend the party Constitution, which would lock in fixed rules, such as:

• Leadership candidates must deliver their nomination papers at least 90 days before the leadership vote. (A timeline that, unless truncated, may not enable a new leader to be selected before the House resumes sitting).
• To be eligible to vote, Canadian residents must be a “registered Liberal” 41 days prior to the leadership vote date. (Given compressed timelines, the party may choose to lock in the existing membership roster).  

Prorogation and its Impacts

Government departments will continue to deliver programs during prorogation with previously allocated funding. 

Procedurally, prorogation essentially halts all business in Parliament, in both the House of Commons and Senate and its various committees.  Bills which have not received Royal Assent at the time of prorogation are terminated.

The government may choose to reintroduce any government bill at the start of the new session via passage of a motion that reinstates the bill at the start of the stage it was at when Parliament was prorogued. Private Members’ Bills that are in the Order of Precedence also are automatically reinstated at the stage they were at when Parliament was prorogued.

Politically, prorogation gives the LPC some breathing room to get a leadership race underway while avoiding the risk of losing a vote of non-confidence in the House of Commons, at least until March 24.

A new session of Parliament will begin on Monday, March 24 with a new Speech from the Throne. It should be noted that a Speech from the Throne does not have to be debated or voted upon, as such the government does not need to face a confidence vote on it.

Prorogation and Government Operation

The timing of prorogation and the return of Parliament is important because of the need of the government to obtain funding (Supply) from Parliament prior to April 1, which is the start of the next federal fiscal year.

The core principle on which Parliament is founded is that the government cannot spend money without Parliament’s approval.

In addition, because the government’s main spending bill is not normally introduced or passed until June, the government annually requires a measure called “Interim Supply” – i.e. because the fiscal year starts on April 1, the government needs an interim spending bill passed to get it from April 1 until passage of the main Supply Bill in June.

While well over half of all federal spending is “statutory,” i.e. has authority through legislation (health transfers, Old Age Security, equalization), in 2024-25 alone almost $200B in spending is non-statutory and requires Parliament to authorize it, otherwise the government will not be able to operate after April 1.

The vote on an Interim Supply bill is automatically a matter of confidence, because it is a money bill. Like any other bill, it requires passage in both the House and Senate, and then Royal Assent.

Possible Election Timing

With the return of the House of Commons on Monday, March 24, the first item of business will be a Speech from the Throne.

The government’s Interim Supply Bill could be introduced on Tuesday, March 25, and then debated and voted upon on Wednesday, March 26.

Should the government be defeated on the Supply Bill, the Prime Minister would then go to the Governor General on Thursday, March 27 to indicate that he had lost the confidence of the House, and that Parliament is to be dissolved for a general election.

Election law in Canada requires a general election to be at least 37 days and election day must be on a Monday. Therefore, the earliest date for an election would then be Monday, May 5, 2025.