Bitter End to NDP & Liberal Confidence Agreement in Parliament

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has withdrawn his support from the Supply and Confidence Agreement, which supported Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government in exchange for implementing dental care, pharmacare and other commitments.

Singh stated that Trudeau and the Liberals do not deserve the NDP’s continued support due to failing to stand up to “corporate greed.” Moving forward, the NDP will consider Liberal legislation on a “case-by-case” basis, reverting to the status quo that held through Trudeau’s minority governments from 2019 to 2022.

This was not a mutual parting of ways, as Liberals were scheduled to hold their own unrelated press conference at the same time the NDP publicly pulled the plug. The overtly critical tone of the NDP video, as well as the mere 13 minutes notice they provided to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s office shows a hostile end to this unprecedented deal.

Why Now?

With polls showing the Liberals in danger of falling behind the NDP, Singh is attempting to position the NDP as the main rival and most worthy opponent to front-runner, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre.

Two by-elections are set for September 16 (one in Winnipeg and one in Montreal), and the NDP caucus retreat is set to begin next week in Montreal. NDP MPs and staff will undoubtedly hit the doors with LaSalle-Emard-Verdun by-election candidate and former staffer Craig Sauvé, with renewed messaging around dumping the less-than-popular Prime Minister. This could go a long way to secure support and a desperately needed win for the NDP in a reportedly tight three-way NDP-Liberal-Bloc race.

With an election expected by October 2025, the NDP were always likely to leave the Supply and Confidence Agreement at some point this fall. The announcement gives Singh and the New Democrats time to try and establish a credible electoral narrative.

Not focused on politics, Trudeau says

Trudeau responded to the news, noting he and his government “aren’t interested in talking politics” and instead will “continue to focus on delivering for Canadians.” The Prime Minister invited Singh to continue working with him and his Caucus. He suggested both the NDP and Liberals remain the progressive options for voters to counter Pierre Poilievre’s conservative agenda.

This friendly tone reflects the fact that the Liberals gain few votes by fighting with the NDP. Instead, they continue to want to polarize progressive voters against the Conservatives and force a choice between Poilievre and Trudeau.

This announcement provides the Liberals options for a policy reset. They could even use tactics like prorogation and a new Speech from the Throne to buy time and set a refreshed agenda to take the Liberals from this fall into 2025’s budget season. Liberals also no longer have to keep negotiations up or consider other parts of the deal with the NDP, although they will have to manage their legislative agenda carefully to avoid any unnecessary missteps.

The most significant short-term change will be the loss of a sure Liberal-NDP majority on parliamentary committees. For the Liberals, this means more investigations, calling of witnesses and other opposition tactics in an attempt to further diminish the public’s opinion of the government and shift focus away from the government’s agenda.

Validating “Sellout Singh”

In recent weeks, the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Pierre Poilievre, has been taking every opportunity to brand the NDP and its leader as sellouts, with the “sellout Singh” slogan and a harsh public letter backing the NDP into a difficult corner.

There is no doubt Poilievre will see this as a huge win for himself and his party and will use this message at every opportunity to fundraise and continue to try and split blue-collar NDP voters away from Singh to the Conservatives.

Election Timing

While the Liberals will not have the reassurance they previously had when returning to the House of Commons, this does not mean an immediate election.

Prior to the agreement, from 2019 to 2022, the NDP voted in favour of key Liberal legislation, including confidence votes, despite no formal deal. In an e-mail to staff, Singh’s office confirmed they will approach every vote “on its own merit.”

With provincial elections happening in British Columbia and in Saskatchewan where they are either government or the lead opposition party, the NDP is unlikely to cause a federal election this fall. This is because the NDP often shares human resources between jurisdictions.

This, on top of less-than-ideal fundraising numbers ($2.6 million so far in 2024 vs $6.8 million for the Liberals and $20.5 million for the Conservatives) suggests a fall election would be difficult for the NDP organizationally.

What’s Next

Trudeau suggested that he and his government will continue to push the pharmacare legislation through the House of Commons, inviting the NDP to join them, in what appeared to be a challenge to their friend-turned-rival.

With the two by-elections in Winnipeg and Montreal scheduled for September 16 (the same day the House of Commons is scheduled to return from its summer break) and with each party planning caucus meetings in advance of the return of the House of Commons, expect all three national parties to be taking this time to adjust and reset their plans for the fall.

Both by-elections provide much in the way of media narrative for this fall. An NDP hold in Winnipeg and a Liberal hold in Montreal may not demonstrate much in the way of change, but Conservatives are aiming for a win in a Winnipeg riding they held from 2011-15 and the NDP are trying to regain the Montreal riding they largely held during the same time frame.