The 44th Canadian general election will be held in September, 2021. And with an election on the horizon, we’ll be awash in political polling. To help provide a flavour for what the electorate might be thinking, we thought it would be helpful to aggregate some of the polls that appear.
Polls being what they are, often uncertain, we hope this tool can provide some directional insight on where the campaign is heading. This tool does that by bringing together polls of voter sentiment. We note each Canadian poll in the chart below and provide links to the original pollster’s data at the bottom of this page.
The X-Axis contains the polling dates, and the Y-Axis denotes the percentage support for each party. If you hover over each data point on the graph, you can see the specific level of support and the poll date. Poll dates correspond to the links below, which connect back to the original poll data as provided by the polling firms.
Canada Moving Average
Admittedly, given the different methodologies and polling intervals, when you combine these polls in a graph, the results can appear radically different at times. To help account for that, we’ve also developed a moving average of this polling data.
This graph provides a five-poll moving average for each political party, with data being drawn from the polls of voters noted above. Some methodologies call for using a weighted average, with the most recent polls being weighted more heavily. However, given the frequency of polling we expect as we head toward the election, we felt a simple moving average would suffice to give a sense of the momentum of the campaign.