The 2022 Ontario general election will be held on or before June 2, 2022. And with an election on the horizon we’ll be awash in political polling. To help provide a flavour for what the electorate might be thinking, we thought it would be helpful to aggregate some of the polls that appear.
Polls are a snapshot of a moment in time, but we hope this tool can provide some directional insight on where the campaign is heading. This tool does that by bringing together polls of voter sentiment. We note each Ontario poll that appears in the chart below and provide links to the original pollster’s data via the link below.
The X-Axis contains the polling dates, and the Y-Axis denotes the percentage support for each party. If you hover over each data point on the graph, you can see the specific level of support and the poll date. Poll dates correspond to the links below, which connect back to the original poll data as provided by the polling firms.
Ontario Moving Average
Admittedly, given the different methodologies and polling intervals, when you combine these polls in a graph, the results can appear radically different at times. To help account for this, we’ve developed a moving average of the polling data being aggregated.
This graph provides a five-poll moving average for each political party, with data being drawn from the polls noted above. Some aggregation methodologies suggest using a weighted average, with the most recent polls being weighted more heavily. However, given the frequency of polling we expect as we head toward the election, we felt a simple moving average would suffice to give a sense of the momentum of the campaign.